Good morning,

We have opened the day weaker as traders’ position for the 11am report. Corn is currently down 5 and soybeans are down 12.

The USDA will release their August WASDE report at 11am this morning. Estimates are listed below. The FSA will also be reporting acres and program participation on their website at 12 today.

2021/22 USDA Yield (Bu/acre)

2021/22 USDA Production (bln bu)

2020/21 USDA Carryout (bln bu)

2021/22 USDA Carryout (bln bu)

We have no idea what the USDA will do as far as yields go today.  They did not go out into the fields for this Report; surveys and satellite imagery were used to estimate yields. (Personally I think this technology may be more accurate than actual field checks because it covers the whole field.)  If heat figures into their models at all, the yield trend should be down today.  They may not move the needle very far and take a wait and see approach with actual field results.

Tropical Storm Fred is expected to make landfall in Florida this weekend.  The models are inflating a little with some more rainfall into the Midwest this morning.  The lower Midwest has some heavier totals showing up into the Dakota’s and Canada.  It’s still going to be hot out West, but most of it is out beyond Iowa and Illinois.

Basis levels on old crop corn have been crumbling the last few days as end users are covered and new crop is on the doorstep. Anyone that is sitting on old crop corn may have missed the boat on great prices but can and should take advantage of prices that may still have a 6 in front of them before they are gone.

Check back after 11 for today’s numbers.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn opened 3 lower and soybeans 7 higher to start the day.

US corn ratings increased 2 pct to 64 G/E. The rating surprised the market, where trade analysts were estimating an average weekly rating of 62% for the week with a range of 59% – 64%. The ratings boost was welcome news for farmers as crops continue peak maturation development. Soybeans conditions stabilized at 60% G/E for a second straight week in yesterday’s Crop Progress report, which was in line with analyst expectations.
Storms moved through the US yesterday and will continue to do so today.  The 10-day forecast by the EU has most of the rain falling in the next 48 hours.  Illinois and East look to be the benefactors of the rain event as the West is primarily dry.  A tropical storm is heading into Florida, which is impacting weather models this morning.  There is enough rain on the radar to hold markets back, but we are not falling apart either.

December corn has been trading around 5.50 for the better part of a month.  I think producers should be making sales at these levels as they are very good prices. There are so many unknowns in the market that you always have to worry at least a little about losing your market when its good.  Covid, the USDA or something that we are not even expecting could always knock it off its block.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is down 4 and soybeans are up 4 to start the week.

Favorable rainfall across the belt over the weekend with more in the forecast should keep the markets flat heading into Thursday’s USDA report.

On Thursday the USDA will release their August WASDE report which will feature the first actual estimates of this year’s crops. While some changes are possible, I wouldn’t be surprised if they leave the 2020-21 balance sheet unchanged. Most traders do expect them to adjust the 2021/22 production numbers by lowering yield estimates. The average estimates for corn yield are 177.6 bu/acre compared to 179.5 in July. Soybeans are estimated at 50.4 bu/acre compared to 50.8 in July. While lower, the 177.6 would be a new record yield which will make demand the market driver.

Crop conditions will be out later today, and the trade is expecting a steady to lower G/E number by 2-3%. While the G/E numbers could fall, the percent in dough stage is well ahead of normal which will put pressure on old crop prices.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are quiet this morning with corn unchanged and soybeans up 5. As we roll along thru summer, the traders have been fairly quiet, and the markets have become rangebound. I would expect this will continue leading up to next Thursdays USDA Crop Production and WASDE report. I would expect volatility to continue post report as the markets learn more about the potential crop yields and try to predict where things will end up.

Certain areas of the country are seeing basis levels strengthen while others are seeing weakness as end users get covered. Locally things are starting to weaken as the crop matures and harvest appears that it could start 1-2 weeks ahead of schedule. I would advise anyone holding old crop corn to get it sold in the cash market or get a basis contract in place. Carrying old corn into new crop is between $..70-1.00 discount.

As for the weather, not much has changed in the forecasts today.  Models agree and call for above average temps and below average rainfall for much of the country’s growing region for the next two weeks.

Have a Safe weekend.

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is down 3 and soybeans are up 3 this morning.

The 10-day forecast has some chances for rain in the coming week.  Rain chances start around August 8th.  The 7 day is where most of this activity happens and then there isn’t much more to the end of the models this morning.  The EU has Northern Illinois getting pretty good amounts, while the GFS has very little and most of the rain falling in Wisconsin.  Iowa will see spotty rains over the weekend.  The high-pressure Ridge builds moving East pushing moisture up into the Northern Midwest.  The Ridge softens on about August 15th and slips South and West.

There is an article by Reuters today about China and commodity prices.  China is trying to lower commodity prices by restricting credit, discouraging buying and tightening regulation. (Reuters)

China’s cabinet called the soaring prices “unreasonable” at a May 19 meeting, saying it would strengthen its management of commodity supply. It called for a crackdown on “malicious trading” and urged coal producers to raise output.  Beijing’s chief planning agency the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) followed up with two separate probes into the coal and iron ore markets, while China’s secretive strategic stockpiler, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration, announced rare sales of key metals aimed at plugging supply gaps and cooling prices.  (Reuters)

Yesterday StoneX (private firm) estimated the 2021 corn crop at 176.9 bpa and 50.0 bpa in beans.  These yields are a little lower than what many in the trade thought Stone would come out with.  They don’t think the crop is getting bigger at this point, but the USDA may have something to say about that next Thursday.

We will continue to see a two-side trade today for corn, beans and wheat. We may go on this way for a while with the USDA coming out with a report next Thursday.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com