July 15, 2021
Good Morning,
Corn is down 6 and soybeans are down 8 to start the day with favorable weather and rainfall over the last 24 hours.
The weather forecast is mostly the same as yesterday with rains moving into the Central US. Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio will get the majority of the precip in coming days. After the rains over the next two days there isn’t much storm activity until about next Thursday/Friday. Totals and amounts are going to be hit or miss for the 15 day forecast.
The market is still working on cleaning up the charts from the gaps left from the Tuesday after the 4th of July. We are close in corn, but still need to get up to 5.735. I don’t think we get this done this week based on weather trade, but could make a run at it next week with warmer temperatures.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 14, 2021
Good morning,
Stronger markets to open the day with corn up 12-15 and soybeans up 25-30.
Weather is the market mover this morning. With forecasts for nice rains across the Midwest the focus is on how much will everyone receive and will there be damaging storms along with them.
Over the next two weeks there are two storm systems that move through the Midwest. The current one is in Minnesota right now and more storms will develop in Eastern Iowa and move into Northern Illinois and Wisconsin. At the very back end of the models a new storm is developing that moves in over a couple days through Iowa and Central Illinois. Some of the current totals will be on the heavy side with levels from 2-7 inches predicted. The seven-day forecast by NOAA is consistent with the EU on placement and amounts this morning for the current storm system.
Warm weather moves into the Midwest starting next week, but it does not look very hot. A ridge sets up limiting rain, but it does not bring much high heat. The warmest temps are up in the Northern plains and up into Canada.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 12, 2021
Good morning,
Corn is up 5 and soybeans are up 9 to start the morning. Favorable weather over the weekend and forecasts for rain in most areas of the Midwest will keep things under wrap early this week. We do have the July WASDE report released at 11am today. My guess is that this report will not be a market mover as I only expect them to update the acres and not adjust yield until the August report. (Estimates below)
The additional acres will be added to corn today, which will increase the carryout. All other adjustments should be minor. This report is not a big one, and we do not expect anything bearish. The market has been washed out hard in corn over the past week, so we think we try and close higher today.
2020/21 Ending Stocks (million bu)
| July 12 | Average Est. | Previous Report | |
| Corn | 1.082 | 1.092 | 1.107 |
| Soybeans | 135 | 135 | 135 |
2021/22 Ending Stocks (million bu)
| July 12 | Average Est. | Previous Report | |
| Corn | 1.432 | 1.304 | 1.357 |
| Soybeans | 155 | 140 | 155 |
| Wheat | 665 | 719 | 770 |
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 8, 2021
Good Morning,
Lower markets out of the gates today with corn down 4 and soybeans down 2.
Corn futures have dropped 50 cents so far this week and more than 12% from their record in January. China’s top agriculture think-tank has cut its estimate for total corn demand in 2020-21 by 3 million tons to 278 million tons and by 5 million tons for next year. While the researcher kept import predictions unchanged, the decrease in local demand strengthens speculation that foreign purchases may have peaked.
The 10 day forecast has rains coming to the Central US this weekend. Amounts are expected to be in the 1-2 inch range for Illinois and Iowa. Indiana and to the Southeast will see up to 3-4. The rains in the forecast have moved East leaving the West mostly shortchanged. Temps are really going to heat up out West the beginning of next week. The heat advances West into the end of the model run. The forecast has less rain, but it still has enough to keep the market down. The heat is still going to be a problem for all those out West.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 6, 2021
Good Morning,
Corn is down 40 and soybeans are down 55 to start the day! Corn and soybeans are down hard this morning after favorable weekend rains and forecasts for cooler and wetter weather in the 7-10 day.
Over the weekend some rains did fall in the Dakota’s and MN. The 10 day forecast totals will have as much as 2.5 inches of rain for the Central US. The storms show up on Thursday and build into Friday. Most all of the rain in the 15 day run is for the later this week, and then a blocking ridge returns. This looks like more normal summer weather with ridges advancing and retreating allowing rains to move in.
A federal appeals court on Friday threw out a Trump-era Environmental Protection Agency rule change that allowed for the sale of a 15% ethanol gasoline blend in the summer months.
The decision deals a significant blow to the ethanol industry and corn farmers who grow the crop from which the fuel additive is made. They had anticipated increased ethanol demand through year-round sales of the higher blend.
Most gasoline sold in the U.S. today is blended with 10% ethanol. Corn farmers and ethanol refiners have pushed for the government to allow the widespread sale of a 15% ethanol blend.
The 4th of July is almost always a turning point in the markets. If we come out of this holiday weekend with rain or forecasts for favorable weather you can guarantee the markets have seen their highs. This is the case this year but producers should look at the opportunity in front of them instead of what they missed. We still have old crop corn prices north of $6 and new crop prices north of $5.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
