Last week was a slower and lower week in the corn markets as rains fell across the Midwest to excessive heat concerns. December and March futures ended the week 9 cents lower while May futures closed 8 cents lower. The funds ended the week short 139,763 corn and 2,891 soybean contracts.

While the dome did materialize, bringing higher temperatures across the Midwest last week, temperatures did not reach the original forecasted highs. Favorable precipitation helped negate the impact of the high temperatures, particularly in the Eastern Corn Belt. The main driving factor behind price movement, or the lack thereof, can be attributed to the ever-changing forecasts that come out multiple times per day. Current forecasts have heat moving out of the Midwest by late this week which should help late pollinating corn avoid a risk of yield loss.

The United States struck a deal with Japan last week that lowers tariffs on auto imports and spares Tokyo from punishing new levies on other goods in exchange for a $550 billion package of US bound investment and loans. Japan has been the second largest importer of US corn this year with 514 million bushels year to date. Agreeing to the deal may not result in additional corn exports, but it definitely helps secure current business.

In Louisiana, growers started harvesting corn over the weekend and may be fulfilling some gulf barge demand early next week. This should start to impact basis levels across the US in the coming weeks as new crops begin to hit the market, quenching some of the old crop demand.

Corn condition ratings were steady last week at 74% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 67% and the 64% five-year average. Only 2 years (2014 & 2016) in the last 14 have had better conditions at this point. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 56% and 14%, respectively.

So far, we have been unable to fill the CBOT gaps made back on July 7^th. I still believe these gaps are in play and will be filled, it may take longer than expected if mother nature doesn’t give the traders some bullish weather in the coming week. Historically late August is when the CBOT bottoms out and we begin our trek higher. This year may be an anomaly as we may set lows in July. Anyone looking to cover new crop needs should consider locking in some prices now to take advantage of current levels. All CBOT prices for the 2025 crop are currently trading in the bottom 16^th percentile for the 5-year period. (only 16% of the time has the market been below current levels over the last five years) There is a lot more room to the upside and while we are trading a record size crop, I believe it will be smaller than current estimates in the end.

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The corn markets bounced last week and closed higher in 4 of the 5 trading sessions. With some heat in the extended forecast, tariff talks that appear to be making ground the funds were net buyers last week. September corn ended the week 12 cents higher. December and March futures both ended 16 cents higher for the week. The funds are short 145,044 corn and long 3,808 soybean contracts.

Forecasts have a large dome forming in the 6–10-day models that is going to bring some hot weather across the major corn growing areas as we head into August. The market’s concern is the timing of this heat as it coincides with pollination in a lot of the major growing areas. Environmental stresses such as high temperatures cause issues by affecting silking and pollen dispersal. There are already issues of poor pollination being reported across several states, including Illinois, Missouri, and Iowa, mainly with corn planted during a specific window in mid-April.

The U.S. trade landscape is entering a high-stakes phase as President Trump accelerates his global tariff campaign. A trade deal has been said to be mostly inked with Indonesia, which includes 4.5 billion dollars of purchases in Agricultural goods. Another major development is the looming July 21 deadline with Canada, where negotiations have intensified following Trump’s threat to raise tariffs on all Canadian imports to 35% beginning August 1. Canada had previously prepared retaliatory tariffs but paused them after Trump’s formal notice. While no final agreement has been reached, the tone has shifted toward resolution, with the August 1 deadline serving as a hard stop for negotiations.

US corn remains competitive on the export market. Brazilian corn prices slipped lower last week, but US Gulf corn is still the best deal around to most markets. US Corn into Europe is about 10 dollars a ton cheaper than Brazilian. The US competitiveness is due to Brazil’s slow harvest pace. Brazil’s Safrinha corn is about 40% to 45% harvested vs. 70% to 75% last year at this time. Brazil may become more competitive during the early US harvest time frame when their harvest is wrapping up and looking for export homes.

Corn condition ratings were steady last week at 74% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 68% and the 65% five-year average. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 34% and 7%, respectively.

As I stated last week, prices typically bottom out in August/September, and we grind higher after that. This year may be the exception where we set our lows in July. I look for the markets to fill the CZ25 gap at $4.3575 early this week. If we fill that gap I think the markets are heading to the $4.45-4.50 level where they will be met with resistance and ultimately trade sideways until we get a better gauge of new crop yields.

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Another week of bearish news or lack of bullish news had the markets on the run. September, December and March futures all ended the week about 25 cents lower. Coming out of the July 4^th weekend we had favorable growing conditions with several areas receiving rain that outperformed forecasts and more on the way. This coupled with President Trump announcing new tariffs had the markets gap lower on Monday and continue the selloff throughout the week. The funds ended the week short 171,287 corn contracts and short 6,816 soybean contracts.

President Trump announced that two of the US’s biggest corn buyers would face a 25% tariff imposed starting August 1st. The president believes the two countries were not removing their tariffs against US goods or making progress in negotiations. The 25% level is a starting point against South Korea and Japan (and will be adjusted upward if there is a retaliatory action taken). The form letter sent to the two nations indicated the 25% level can be reduced according to the removal of trade barriers to US goods. Japan has been the second largest destination for US corn behind Mexico while South Korea is the fourth largest importer of US corn. Combined these two countries have accounted for more than 800 million bushels this year.

On Friday the USDA released their July WASDE which was in line with analysts’ pre-report estimates. Beginning stocks were cut by 25 million bushels to 1.3 billion as an increase in old crop exports offset a reduction in feed use. New crop production was reduced by 115 million bushels due to lower planted and harvested acres.

USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025 US Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

Weekly crop conditions showed 74% of the corn crop in the Good/Excellent category, which is up 1% from last week and ahead of last year and the five-year average by 9%

Traders are going to focus on two things over the next few weeks, US Weather and Trade relations (Tariffs).

Weather can still have a negative impact on the size of this year’s crop, but it is quickly running out of time to do it. I believe the market is currently trading 185-187 bushel per acre yield, so there is a greater risk to the downside. Trade relations could be clearer in the next two weeks if President Trump sticks to his August 1^st deadline. I look for a mixed bag on this front. Some countries will work out deals with the US while others will stall and have tariffs increased or deadlines extended.

Historically the CBOT bottoms out in August/September and we grind higher after that. This year may be the exception where we set our lows in July. We are about 12 cents away from a key support level of $3.99 CZ25. I would not be surprised to see this taken out in the next week or two before we trend higher. As mentioned above, the risk of the crop getting smaller is greater than it increasing at this point.

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Last weeks USDA report was uneventful resulting in flat markets until late in the week when a warmer forecast and talks of trade with China spurred the markets. September futures ended the week 8 cents higher while December and March futures closed 10 cents higher. The funds bought back 38,000 contracts and headed into the extended weekend short 135,396 corn contracts. The funds bought 16,000 soybean contracts and are now long 51,396 contracts.

The USDA released their Quarterly stocks and Acreage report on Monday June 30^th. Corn planted area came in at 95.2 million acres. This is 5% higher than a year ago and slightly below the March estimate. Compared to a year ago, planted acreage is expected to be higher in 41 of the 48 estimated states.

USDA Planted Acreage (Million Acres)

Corn stocks on June 1 came in at 4.64 billion bushels. This was down 7% from a year ago. On farm stocks were down 16% from a year ago while off-farm stocks(elevators) were up 6% from a year ago.

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (Billion Bushels)

Weekly crop conditions showed 73% of the corn crop in the Good/Excellent category, which is slightly up from last week and still ahead of last year and the five-year average.

With the June report behind us traders are going to focus on US weather and forecasts over the next couple weeks as we enter the major growing cycles for corn(tasseling and pollination). The 11-15 day forecast has warmer temperatures moving up from Texas into the Plains and expanding into the Midwest.  If we were to see a ridge develop in the forecast on Monday or anytime early next week, things could get exciting on the CBOT. Until then traders are going to stick with the thought that this crop has the potential to be a big one.

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Favorable weather, weaker energy markets and political news pulled corn lower this past week. September and December futures ended the week 14 cents lower while March futures lost 15 cents. Following Fridays buying and CFTC report the funds are short 173,396 corn contracts and long 36,396 soybean contracts.

News of the US attacks in Iran did not generate the market reaction that I expected. Iran responded to the US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities by launching missiles at U.S. bases in the Middle East. Normally, one would expect this to be bullish news for the crude oil markets, but those markets ended up lower on the week. The trade appears to have the opinion that the retaliatory strikes were just a token response and will not be enough to escalate the US involvement at this time.

There was additional news out of Washington for the bears and the bulls last week. President Trump announced he had signed a trade deal with China but provided no details about the agreement. Traders don’t know if the deal is binding or tied to Ag exports but there was a general enthusiasm that a deal being done would mean a lowering of tariffs and improved trade relations. On the flip side, President Trump announced that trade talks with Canada were cut off due to its announced digital tax on American Tech Companies. The US does significant cross-border trade in agricultural goods with Canada, especially ethanol. Look for more news to come on these relations in the next week.

The USDA will release their Quarterly stocks and Acreage report on Monday. I am looking for grain stocks to be friendly the markets as demand has been strong and I think the size of last year’s crop has been overstated. Acreage should come in line with trade estimates. Estimates for Monday’s report is listed below.

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (Billion Bushels)

USDA Planted Acreage (Million Acres)

Weekly crop conditions showed 70% of the corn crop in the Good/Excellent category, which is slightly down from last week but ahead of last year and the five-year average.

The markets historically don’t bottom until September, but if Monday’s report doesn’t give us anything too bearish, we could have a low in for the short term. Long term I believe new crop prices will continue to trend lower.

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