April 20, 2021
Good Morning,
The climb continues this morning with corn up 12 in the old crop and 8 in the new crop. Soybeans are leading the way trading 30 higher.
Yesterday afternoons planting progress report showed U.S. Corn planted was 8% versus 4% a week ago, 6% last year, and 8% average. IL 12 vs 7, IA 4 vs 2, KY 26 vs 23. U.S. Corn emerged was 2% versus 1% last year, and 1% average. U.S. Soybeans planted was 3% versus 2% last year, and 2% average.
The 10 day outlook for South America is mostly the same as yesterday. Wet weather in the far West and dryness in Central and Eastern Brazil. Temps will be the same 80’s-90’s, which is about normal. The dry weather pattern is still in place and is going to further deteriorate second crop Brazilian corn. Brazil is going to allow for duty free imports of corn, soyoil and meal.
The December corn market is starting to get very overbought from a technical standpoint. We have two major gaps below the market as well. There will be some sort of correction coming in this market sometime, but for now it rolls on higher. Producers should make some new crop sales at current levels for fall delivery with prices in the $5 range.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
April 19, 2021
Good Morning,
Markets are stronger this morning with corn up 6 and soybeans up 9.
The three factors supporting the markets today are a weaker US dollar, dry weather in Brazil for the Safrinha crop and cold US temps to start the week.
The 10 day forecast has no rain in it for second crop Brazilian corn. This is the dry season for Brazil; it just seems that this year the extremes have been greater than usual. No rain for the next 10 days is going to pull yields lower. Brazilian corn is right ahead of pollination. Temps will be in the 80’s-90’s.
Expectations for this afternoon’s corn planting progress are expected to be 10-11% vs. 8% for the 5 year average. The first soybean planting progress update is expected this afternoon as well.
Friday’s report showed the funds adding 15,400 contracts to their net long position in corn. They are currently estimated to be long 402,000 contracts which is the largest net long since January of 2011 and nearing the all-time record long of 429,000 contracts.
I would advise producers to get firm offers in for old crop corn in the $5.90-$6.00 range and new crop offers in between 5.00-$5.15 range. While the market has been slowly climbing higher, we need to keep in mind that the funds are running the market right now and at some point they will start to dump these longs and send the market into a quick tailspin. We have a gap in December corn to fill between $4.775 and 4.8076 that I would expect to see filled in the coming weeks.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
April 15, 2021
Good Morning,
Old corn is down 3, new corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 4 to start the day.
Exports were very low this week without much interest in any of the core US products. Corn sales were 327,700 mt with almost all the sales coming from 50/50 with Japan and Mexico. Bean sales were 90,400 mt with a host of traditional buyers in, but zero for China. China did buy some new beans with 265,000 mt.
For the week ended Apr 9th, ethanol production was 941,000 barrels per day, down 3.5% versus a week ago, up 65.1% versus a year ago. Stocks were 20.5 mil barrels, down 0.6% versus last week, down 25.3% versus last year. Corn used was 95.1 mil bu versus 98.5 mil last week and versus the 97.2 mil needed to meet USDA projections.
The 10 day forecast in Brazil has some rain showing up next week in the South, 1-2 inches in isolated storms. Central Brazil will stay mostly dry with close to trace amounts forecast. This could be the beginning of a pattern change, with some of the first rains moving into Southern Brazil.
May corn futures touched 6 dollars in the overnight trade. Whatever happens today, is probably going to be the high for this. After the drop on Monday, the market has rallied about 40 cents in corn for the week. Beans are in the middle of their trading range that they have been holding since January. The funds continue to stay long. The bean position is on the small side with South America taking over exports and the risk of African Swine Flu holding that trade back. Corn futures are going to result in some new acres getting planted as new crop prices have rallied above 5 dollars.
Things are good for now and the markets should remain stable, but be prepared as any shift in demand and this thing will head south fast.
High Prices cure High Prices!
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
April 14, 2021
Good Morning,
Stronger markets this morning with old corn up 12, new crop corn up 6 and soybeans up 19.
Dry weather for the Safrinha corn crop in Brazil is driving prices higher the last two trading sessions. Brazil raises two crops of corn, the first is primarily used for domestic feed and ethanol. The Safrinha crop is mostly sold for export. The shrinking of this crop will make the World export market a tighter place for corn.
The 10 day forecast is still very dry for Central and Eastern Brazil. Second crop Brazilian corn is entering the critical stage of development and the crop needs rain now. Temps will be in the 80’s-90’s, not excessively hot. Western and Southern Brazil will see a chance of close to an inch of rain in the next week. Argentina has stayed wet during the beginning of their harvest.
The Fund position for corn could be at a new record high today. The bean position is pretty small in comparison. Markets take turns on bull runs and this one is all about corn stocks and acres. South America is able to supply the World with beans, but weather has their corn supply in question. Planting pace is really going to pick up over the next week which should put some pressure on the markets shortly.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
April 13, 2021
Good Morning,
Markets opened stronger this morning with corn up 14 and soybeans up 14. Concerns over Brazils weather have added strength to the markets today. Agencies in Brazil are getting concerned about the 2nd crop corn as they dropped production 3.5%.
US corn plantings are near 4 pct vs 2 last week and 3 average. Cold temps have not slowed plantings. Texas has by far made the most progress, with 57% of the state’s corn crop now planted, followed by North Carolina (16%), Tennessee (11%) and Kentucky (10%). Nine other states have measurable progress of between 1% and 8%.
The 10 day forecast for the US has very light amounts of rain for the Central growing region. Up to a quarter of an inch is projected over the next 14 days. Most of the heavy rain stays in the far South Delta where they will get up 4-5 inches. In the back end of the model you can see storms develop in Texas and head East covering Missouri and the Southern tip of Illinois. The North stays very dry in the entire 14 day model. Temps will be below normal out into April 28th.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
