Good Morning,

For the first day this week the markets appear to be headed lower. Corn is down 3 and soybeans are down 12 to start the day. With a 3 day weekend on the horizon and funds holding a record long position we should expect some profit taking.

The US dollar has made a low over the past couple weeks awaiting whatever any new stimulus package may look like as the White House is in transition.

The weather forecast for South America is consistent with prior runs dropping some much needed rain in Argentina.  Totals were be .25-1 inch over the next 48 hours, with most of it falling to the North.  Western Brazil is going to see excessive rainfall where amounts will be up to 8 inches, causing flash flooding.  Central Brazil will see scattered showers over the weekend.  The important thing will be if Argentina has more rain in the forecast early next week.

The president of one of Brazil’s truck unions has warned in local media that upcoming strike action, scheduled for February 1, could be worse than in 2018 when national action over pay and conditions cut off essential supplies to major cities across the country.

The president of the National Association of Autonomous Transport (ANTB) Jose Roberto Stringasci was quoted in a number of Brazilian media outlets warning that the protest over rising diesel prices is gathering support and could be bigger than 2018.

With few major railways, Brazil is particularly reliant upon truck transportation to move goods around the country, with the previous truck strike quickly bringing the country to its knees.

This has lead to additional Chinese purchases of US soybeans as they have already been dealing with the delayed crop from South America due to weather.

Reminder there are no markets on Monday 1/18/21 as trade observes Martin Luther King Day.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are mixed this am with old corn up 7, new corn down 5 and soybeans down 10. Yesterdays report was a shock to most, but when you look deeper into the numbers the corn market is about 50-60 cents too high given the final stocks number.

Most were talking about the yield yesterday for the big rally, but that answer is actually the stocks report for corn.  It should have been one of the most bullish stocks reports in the first quarter, and that was proven true yesterday.  Last year the Dec 1st stocks report was 11.327, keep in mind there were 20 million acres of prevent plant acres of corn, and less than stellar yields.  The average trade estimate had this stocks report coming in at close to 12.000 billion bushels.  The actual number can in 650 million bushels below at 11.322 billion bushels.  Poor crops, prevent plant and the largest first quarter export program of all time got us to here.  There will not be a quarter going forward with this much disappearance, shipping and using the crop this fast.  Exporters will not like the price jump, and probably buy only what they need.  Ethanol is going to have a really tricky time with margins, grinding corn into summer.  This looks like another slow down scenario for ethanol like we have seen several times over the year.  Bad economics, bad weather, and demand out of China have put the US in a position of overall low grain supplies.

Bottom line = Don’t expect these prices to be sustained as demand will disappear quicker than it came.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

January 12, 2021

Good Morning,

REPORT DAY!

Corn is unchanged this morning while soybeans and wheat are up 7 and 8 respectively.

Funds are estimated to be long 327,000 corn and 172,000 soybean contracts after yesterdays close.

The USDA report will rule the markets today and volatility could be extreme. Estimates for todays report are listed below. Check back after 11am for the finals.

USDA 2020 Harvested Acres (mln acres)

USDA 2020 Yield (Bushel per acre)

USDA 2020 Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2020/21 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are starting off the week with corn unchanged and soybeans up 7 as traders prepare for tomorrows USDA report. The January 12^th Crop Report is out tomorrow at 11:00. The USDA will update the supply and demand as well as the first quarter stocks.

On Friday the funds were net buyers of 15,000 soybean and 5000 corn contracts. Funds are estimated to be long 362,000 corn and 191,000 soybean contracts. The managed fund long position is near a record long. I expect this position will limit any significant move higher if tomorrows report is bullish as the funds already hold a significant long position. Combined corn, soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, Chicago, KC and MLS wheat commercial futures is near record 1,613,000 contracts.

Argentina has lifted a suspension on corn exports announced in December and will opt instead for a temporary 30,000 tonne daily cap on sales abroad. The agriculture ministry said in a statement in the early hours of Monday that it had struck agreements to guarantee the domestic supply of corn and cushion local prices against fluctuations in international markets, allowing it to end the full ban.

I believe we are nearing a top in corn, but think we may have a little more upside in the soybean market. The $14 dollar mark is a strong possibility on this run when looking at the retracement levels.  My guess is that tomorrows numbers will be neutral in corn (given the recent rally) and traders may do some selling ahead of the report. Volatility is going to be really high tomorrow.

Producers should be making sales of old and new crop corn and soybeans at these levels. Keep in mind there is a very large long fund position and the fact that 10 million acres of prevent plant will be going back into the market as we head to the March 31^st planting intentions!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are firm again this morning with corn up 1 and soybeans up 11. Strength in the bean market continues to move all markets higher. Rumors of Chinese purchases for July and August shipments are propping the beans up this morning.

The forecast for Argentina has rains in the forecast this morning.  They should be getting rain from Sunday through Tuesday.  We should be getting a good idea if the forecast is a bust or not, about the same time the USDA is releasing the Jan 12th crop report.  This forecast has been wet in the morning run, and drier at mid-day for the last 5 days.  The rain forecast for Central Brazil, showed good precip, but not much came out of it this week.  Most of the heavy rains are to the East.

The market looks to hold steady into the weekend, with South American weather risk and the USDA crop report coming Tuesday.  Most Sunday nights have been higher, followed by fizzling market by Monday morning.  Rumors of Chinese purchases for July and August shipments are propping the beans up this morning.  These purchases are probably not rumor, as we are pretty sure they happened Wednesday and Thursday.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

ggard@didionmilling.com

920-348-6844