March 22, 2021
Good Morning,
Markets are down sharp to start the week with corn off 8 and soybeans off 7.
Favorable weather continues to be the case in South America. Fronts are bringing rain to previously parched areas of Argentina. The forecast is consistent with where we left things off on Friday. A total flip to a wet pattern in Southern Brazil and Argentina, while North and East Brazil will be very dry. Argentina saw totals last week of over 2 inches and look to get another 2-5 inches this week. A high pressure ridge has set in Brazil that is keep the rain out for the next 10 days. There are also some indications that we could see a flow of moisture return to Brazil for the safrinha corn areas which would be beneficial to the crop.
Private survey based planting intention estimates should start to come out this week and will provide info for the markets to trade. Next Wednesday 3/31 is when the USDA will release planting intentions.
I would advise producers to have 40-50% of their new crop sold prior to this report to protect against any bearish numbers. If the USDA gives us 93+ million acres of corn, this market could sell off in the new crop.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
March 17, 2021
Happy St. Patrick’s Day!
Traders are taking their pot of gold this morning as they sell off some of their longs. Corn is currently down 4, soybeans down 11 and wheat is down 5.
Despite rumors and confirmation yesterday of additional sales the markets are trading lower today.
China has bought some US corn ahead of the meeting tomorrow in Alaska, which also has had no effect on corn prices in China. There is supposed to be another sale announced to China today in corn of somewhere between 400,000 to 800,000 mt. The USDA confirmed a sale of 1.156 mt yesterday, but this sale is old news to traders as it was made weeks ago, just not announced to who it was made.
The market continues to be choppy with very little connection between old and new crop values. Recent trade has shown strength in the old crop with new crop fading. The March 31 report is going to be the next mover and while no one knows where acres will come in, I fear that it could be bearish the market. (mainly new crop) If you are a producer, make sure you have enough sales on that if the crop report comes out with 96-98 million acres you will be ok. On the flip side, end users should look to protect themselves the other way if we see anything sub 93 million acres that they are ok.
Before you dig into that corn beef and cabbage and start drinking your green beer today, give your local buyer a call and put some firm offers in place for old and new crop corn. Who knows, maybe the luck of the irish will be with you and some of them will get hit!
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
March 16, 2021
Good Morning,
Softer markets to start the day with nearby corn unchanged and new crop corn down 5. Soybeans are 1-3 lower across the board.
Corn planting in the south is off to a good start. Planting in TX was reported at 26% complete vs. 10% last week and 26% on average. LA corn is 14% planted vs. 5% on average. Early spring weather has helped the south and expectations are that we may see the same in the Midwest.
Brazil saw another good week of soybean harvest last week that shows them 46% complete compared to 34% the previous week and 55% on average. Mato Grosso is 80% complete which is just shy of the 88% for the 5 year average. Safrinha corn planting jumped to 72% compared to 50% the previous week and 90% on average.
The funds took advantage of the expanded position limits yesterday and added 25,000 corn and 3500 soybean contracts to their positions. All of this length was added in the nearby contracts while the new crop prices fell. Funds are now long 356,000 corn and 135,000 soybeans.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
March 15, 2021
Good Morning,
Markets are mixed this morning with old corn up 3, new corn down 2 and soybeans down 9. Soybean prices appear to be taking a hit with concerns of a larger issue with the African Swine Flu in China.
The forecast for Argentina and Southern Brazil is much wetter than any of the models from last week. A current cold front is going to open Argentina up for rain over the next 10 plus days. One rain system will hang around for the next couple days producing .2-1 inches, followed by another that will bring 1-2 inches later this week. Temps will be below normal as it rains in the South. The weather improvement can help their crop, but is coming a little late to dramatically change production. Brazil Safrinha corn crop is 77% planted, up 20% on the week vs 89% a year ago. Argentina corn is 4% harvested vs 8% a year ago. Brazilian soybeans are 45% harvested, up 12% on the week vs 58% a year ago.
New speculative trade position limits go into effect today for the grains with spot month limits essentially doubling and total positions held allowances increasing substantially. These new limits are going to increase volatility to the up and downside.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
March 11, 2021
Good Morning,
Markets are up slightly and trying to regain some of yesterdays losses. Yesterday we saw corn down 11, soybeans down 31 and wheat down wheat down 5.
There were many reasons for the nasty break in futures yesterday in the CBOT. Technical meltdown, trading through several levels of stops. Overbought conditions, without any substantial break in corn futures. A weather model that increased rain totals for Argentina for up to 2.5 inches. African Swine Flu breaking out in new areas of China.
CONAB raised their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop to 135.1 MMT from 133.8 last month compared to the USDA at 134.0 MMt. They also raised their estimate of total corn production to 108.1 MMT up from 105.5 MMT previously.
Weekly export sales came in on the low end for corn at 15.6 mln. bu. compared to the ten week average of 66.5. Soybeans came in at 12.9 mln. bu. compared to the ten week average of 22.5.
Chinese soybean processors are taking down time for maintenance due to the slow arrival of Brazilian soybeans. Yet, soymeal prices remain soft. It’s not a good sign when soymeal futures in China are down when crushers are taking down time. That suggests soft demand due to a resurgence in African Swine Fever cases.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
