December 11, 2020
Good Morning,
Markets are quiet this morning with corn and soybeans trading 1 lower and 1 higher respectively. This will probably be the case moving forward until we get updated supply estimates for the United States in January. In yesterday’s report the USDA left the U.S. corn balance sheet completely unchanged this month as was expected. Weekly ethanol production and exports have been good enough to justify current estimates and feed/residual won’t be updated until December 1 stocks data can be incorporated. On the global front, the USDA cut the Argentine corn crop to 49.0 million metric tons (mmt) vs. 50.0 mmt last month and 51.0 mmt last year. The USDA left their estimate of the Brazilian corn crop unchanged at 110.0 mmt even though Brazil’s state forecaster CONAB is at 102.6 mmt. It was encouraging to see the USDA raise their estimate of Chinese corn imports to 16.5 mmt from 13.0 mmt last month. Considering China already has 11.3 mmt worth of corn imports on the books, the USDA’s estimate of 16.5 mmt could still prove too small.
The December WASDE wasn’t much of a feature for soybeans either, although carryout and the stocks/use ratio tightened further. In general, soybeans remain in a consolidative mode much like corn, making day-to-day price action difficult to manage. South American weather remains the largest factor, at least until the focus can be brought back to the United States in January.
As I have been saying for the last few weeks, South American weather and Chinese sales/cancellations are going to be the market movers for the foreseeable future. While I believe China will continue to buy US soybeans with the later supply from South America expected, I have heard from some very reliable sources that they expect China will cancel some of the purchases currently on the books.
With corn and soybean cash prices at profitable levels for both old and new crop corn, producers should be making sales. We may see a late winter/early spring acreage push, but nothing is guaranteed. As the saying goes “A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush”! Let’s take the bird and make sure we can farm another year.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 10, 2020
December 10, 2020
Good Morning,
Markets are quiet after the release of todays USDA report. Corn is currently unchanged and soybeans are up 8. Here are todays numbers.
USDA 2020/21 US grain ending stocks (Billion bu.)
| December Est. | November Est. | |
| Wheat | .862 | .877 |
| Corn | 1.702 | 1.702 |
| Soybeans | .175 | .190 |
USDA 2020/21 World ending stocks (Billion bu.)
| December Est. | November Est. | |
| Wheat | 316.50 | 320.45 |
| Corn | 288.96 | 291.43 |
| Soybeans | 85.64 | 86.52 |
As expected no real surprises. South American weather and Chinese purchases or cancelations will move the market either direction until the January report.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 9, 2020
Good Morning,
Stronger markets this morning with corn up 3 and soybeans up 10.
The Trump Administration offered a $916 billion dollar stimulus pact to potentially be settled by year end. Pelosi and Schumer said in a joint statement that it marked progress because it brought McConnell closer to the $908 billion framework unveiled last week by the group of Democrats and Republican lawmakers. But they said its omission of supplementary jobless benefits was unacceptable and backed the continuing bipartisan effort at crafting a compromise. The plan differs from the alternative that Pelosi and Schumer endorsed as a basis for fresh talks. It includes $600 stimulus payments to individuals, which could win support from both Democrats and Republicans, but it pays for that part by cutting the bipartisan proposal for $300 a week in supplemental unemployment aid.
No different than any other time there continue to be rumors of Chinese cancelations and rumors that China is looking for a whole host of ag and energy to purchase into year end. Ethanol and US meats look to be big potential purchases. Until the sales are made and the ships unloaded on their docs its all up in the air.
Tomorrow the USDA will release its December S&D report at 11am. Ending stocks for corn and soybeans are expected to drop slightly.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 8, 2020
Good Morning,
Markets opened lower again this morning with corn down 3 and soybeans down 14. Yesterday the markets recovered from the early selloff with corn posting a 4 cent gain while soybeans closed 5 lower.
USDA report Thursday. Traders do not look for any big changes to US corn, soybean or wheat 2020 balance sheets. Conab SA crop estimate is also out Thursday. Trade estimates have Brazil corn at 109 mmt vs USDA 110. Soy 132 vs 133.
Scattered showers are falling across the Northern 2/3rds of Mato Grosso. Rainfall totals are from .5-1.5 inches. These rains are much less than normal, this is a time when Mato Grosso sees triple that amount of rain. The coverage of this rain event is disappointing. There will be another chance in a couple days for another .5-2.5 inches. Southern Brazil and Argentina will remain in a dry trend all the way out till Christmas.
Look for more days of trading like yesterday leading up to Thursdays report. The market should be supported ahead of the crop report, and the continued dryness in Southern Brazil and Argentina.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 7, 2020
Good Morning,
Markets are lower to start the week with corn down 4 and soybeans down 12. Soybeans are leading the markets as of late with South American weather and projected production being the catalyst.
AgRural, a Brazilian agribusiness consultancy, on Friday cut for the third consecutive time its estimate for Brazilian production of corn in the summer, citing dry weather in the nation’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul. AgRural now projects summer corn production in center-south fields to be an estimated 19.4 million tonnes for the 2020/2021 cycle, down from 20.7 million tonnes forecast last month and roughly in line with last season’s 19.7 million tonnes, when dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul farms also slashed yields and output.
Brazil’s soybean production in the 2020/2021 cycle is expected to jump to a record of 131.79 million tonnes as high prices drove farmers to increase plantings, according to the average of 13 analysts’ estimates polled by Reuters on Friday. This represents a 5.6% rise from what the government says farmers collected last season, which was an estimated 124.8 million tonnes. The poll also shows that a drought reduced expectations for an even bigger crop, as in October the average of analysts’ forecasts showed estimated output this season at 132.25 million tonnes.
Reminder that we do have a USDA report out on Thursday. Very seldom does the USDA alter this report, but corn and soybean stocks are going to be watched closely. They will not adjust yield or production, but will look at use and forward demand.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
