January 12, 2021

Good Morning,

REPORT DAY!

Corn is unchanged this morning while soybeans and wheat are up 7 and 8 respectively.

Funds are estimated to be long 327,000 corn and 172,000 soybean contracts after yesterdays close.

The USDA report will rule the markets today and volatility could be extreme. Estimates for todays report are listed below. Check back after 11am for the finals.

USDA 2020 Harvested Acres (mln acres)

USDA 2020 Yield (Bushel per acre)

USDA 2020 Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2020/21 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are starting off the week with corn unchanged and soybeans up 7 as traders prepare for tomorrows USDA report. The January 12^th Crop Report is out tomorrow at 11:00. The USDA will update the supply and demand as well as the first quarter stocks.

On Friday the funds were net buyers of 15,000 soybean and 5000 corn contracts. Funds are estimated to be long 362,000 corn and 191,000 soybean contracts. The managed fund long position is near a record long. I expect this position will limit any significant move higher if tomorrows report is bullish as the funds already hold a significant long position. Combined corn, soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, Chicago, KC and MLS wheat commercial futures is near record 1,613,000 contracts.

Argentina has lifted a suspension on corn exports announced in December and will opt instead for a temporary 30,000 tonne daily cap on sales abroad. The agriculture ministry said in a statement in the early hours of Monday that it had struck agreements to guarantee the domestic supply of corn and cushion local prices against fluctuations in international markets, allowing it to end the full ban.

I believe we are nearing a top in corn, but think we may have a little more upside in the soybean market. The $14 dollar mark is a strong possibility on this run when looking at the retracement levels.  My guess is that tomorrows numbers will be neutral in corn (given the recent rally) and traders may do some selling ahead of the report. Volatility is going to be really high tomorrow.

Producers should be making sales of old and new crop corn and soybeans at these levels. Keep in mind there is a very large long fund position and the fact that 10 million acres of prevent plant will be going back into the market as we head to the March 31^st planting intentions!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are firm again this morning with corn up 1 and soybeans up 11. Strength in the bean market continues to move all markets higher. Rumors of Chinese purchases for July and August shipments are propping the beans up this morning.

The forecast for Argentina has rains in the forecast this morning.  They should be getting rain from Sunday through Tuesday.  We should be getting a good idea if the forecast is a bust or not, about the same time the USDA is releasing the Jan 12th crop report.  This forecast has been wet in the morning run, and drier at mid-day for the last 5 days.  The rain forecast for Central Brazil, showed good precip, but not much came out of it this week.  Most of the heavy rains are to the East.

The market looks to hold steady into the weekend, with South American weather risk and the USDA crop report coming Tuesday.  Most Sunday nights have been higher, followed by fizzling market by Monday morning.  Rumors of Chinese purchases for July and August shipments are propping the beans up this morning.  These purchases are probably not rumor, as we are pretty sure they happened Wednesday and Thursday.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

ggard@didionmilling.com

920-348-6844

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans are trading 4 and 20 respectively this morning.  Overnight March and May corn on the CBOT traded above $5 which was seen as a ceiling by many traders. We have blown thru all of the previous ceilings ($4, $4.50, $4.80) so it will be interesting to see if we can get a close above that level. With continued sales being made to China the markets are working to quell demand. The recent strength in the Chinese Yuan in relation to the US Dollar has made Chinese purchases easier. The strength in the Yuan is self inflicted by the Chinese government and is making this long term strength very questionable. Overnight Crude oil topped $50/bbl for the first time in close to a year which is positive news for the corn markets. This jump in oil was due to Saudi Arabia agreeing to cut oil production by 1 million barrels per day in the months of February and March.

I will continue to preach that producers need to be taking advantage of these markets as they are not sustainable. The markets are reacting as they should to curb demand and the inverses in the market show how quickly they are doing it.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are stronger this morning with corn up 6 and soybeans up 29. Will todays trade be the same as yesterday? Yesterday was a wild ride, and today may not be much different. The markets were up these same levels yesterday before closing lower on corn and 1 higher in soybeans. If we are trading weather, the change to wetter in Argentina would produce a lower trade. I don’t know where we close today, but we are definitely in the volatility stage of the market. Trade gets nasty on highs and lows.
On Monday, Managed funds were net buyers of 2,000 wheat, net even corn, bought 5,000 soybeans. Funds are estimated to be net long 36,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 357,000 Corn; net long 222,000 Soybeans.
The forecast has a significant change to a wetter forecast for Argentina and Southern Brazil. The forecast into Jan 15 has the most rain forecast in months. Should this forecast hold true, this would be the crop saving rains that Argentina has been looking for. So far, most of the forecasts for Argentina have gone bust. A confirmation of the mid-day forecast and again tomorrow morning, may give traders a pause in the buying. Northern Brazil looks to get very good rains over the next 10 days which will help later planted crops. Some early beans are already being harvested, with yields down between 10 and 40%.

As I stated in yesterdays comments, this rally is not sustainable and producers should be making sales of old and new crop corn and soybeans. These are profitable levels for all operations and should be captured.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com