Good Morning,

Markets are down two in corn, up 4 in beans and down 7 in wheat. Crude oil is up 100 points and US Stocks are up 150. The dollar is slightly lower. The election is too close to call, with early returns on the ballots showing many States going the same as the last election. Many of the key States up for grabs are the same, and voter counts are close to even. This election is very tight, with much more of the popular vote yet to come in. Market volatility has not been extreme overnight.
China has not bought US soybean for 19 days. Large imported supplies to date could be slowing new buying. Late planted Brazil 2021 soybean crop could eventually add to US soybean export demand. There is even talk of US soybeans being loaded to Brazil. USDA China Ag attaché lowered his estimate of China imports to 95 mmt. Some feel if true this could hurt new crop Brazil demand.

Space has become a premium locally with the gut slot of harvest upon us. Lines, lack of space and last minute ground piles are the story this week. With the forecast for favorable weather thru the weekend things should continue to roll along at a very fast pace. Don’t let the harvest rush keep you from making some marketing decisions for post-harvest. The most important sales are the ones that keep grain moving out of your bins once harvest is complete. This will remove fines and keep grain fresh. December prices in the $3.80-3.90 range are a good place to be selling.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are higher this morning with corn up 2 and soybeans up 10.

Last nights’ crop report showed corn harvest at 82% complete compared to 69% for the 5 year average. Soybean harvest was 87% complete compared to 83% for the 5 year average. Wisconsin was reported at 55% complete on corn and 91% complete on soybeans. Both are significantly ahead of the 5 year average.
Brazilian farmers planted around 1 million hectares of soybeans per day during the last week to nearly catch up on sowing delays for the new grain season. Soybean planting in Brazil advanced in a week from 23% of the area to 42% by Oct. 29 as farmers worked the fields at a breakneck pace after long-delayed rains provided the necessary soil moisture for them to progress; the current planting situation is now close to the historical average of 44% by this time of the year.

Look for the grains to remain range bound with greater risk to the downside with shutdowns worldwide from Covid outbreaks. Fear that exports and global trade along with US shutdowns on the horizon may have traders pulling money from the grains.

Don’t forget to VOTE today!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

All markets are off sharply this morning with corn down 10, soybeans down 18 and wheat down 12.

Significant precipitation is still expected in West Texas and from the Texas Panhandle through Oklahoma and south-central Kansas into Thursday. This will significantly increase soil moisture and be beneficial for newly planted winter crops. US Midwest 6-10 day forecast is cool and dry. 8-14 day is warm and dry.

The markets are generally weaker in almost all areas where the funds are long. Just about the only things higher is the US dollar and the bond market. This should be the beginning of the correction and could last a little while. It will be up to the funds defending their position and chart technicals. There really is about the first large correction the corn market has seen for a while, and its awfully long. May not be enough chairs for everyone, now that the music has stopped.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are neutral this morning after trading lower overnight. Corn is down 1 and soybeans are up 2 at this time.
Traders continue to monitor Chinese movements as they continue their buying spree of U.S. Ag commodities. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office stated at the end of last week that Chinese purchases to date for the current calendar year total near $23 billion, which is near two-thirds of the phase-one trade agreement for 2020. It still doesn’t mean that all those purchases will be shipped and most likely will not. But it does mean that we could still reach record levels for the current year.

Strong soybean demand is already a known factor, with the possibility of more demand in early 2021 if Brazil’s export season is delayed due to late planting. Soybean planting progress in Brazil is at 24.3% as of Friday, up from 9% the previous week, but down from 30.7% the previous year. Mato Grosso is a key production state for both soybeans and for safrinha corn to follow the soybean crop. Planting progress there reached 31% as of Friday, up from 0.5% the previous week. Soybean demand could also end up being much stronger in early 2021 if La Nina results in a hot dry summer for Argentina and southern Brazil.

But traders are also watching China’s corn market, which saw cash prices top $10 per bushel in southern areas of the country last week amid tight supplies. Farmers aren’t selling, believing that prices will go higher, but current high prices are rapidly pulling wheat into feed rations – likely displacing more than 20% of the corn feeding.

The Chinese Communist Party has been making a big deal about being self-sufficient in corn production in recent months. Allowing prices to remain high is one way of achieving that objective, while opening the floodgate to imports would make such a goal of self-sufficiency even harder to achieve.

I would not be surprised to see some fund liquidation this week heading into the month end and US elections.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is up 2 and soybeans are down 4 to end the week. For the week corn is up 13, soybeans up 17.

On Thursday, funds were net sellers of 5,000 SRW Wheat; bought 8,000 Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans. Managed funds are net long 61,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 253,000 Corn; net long 256,000 Soybeans.

U.S. ethanol production for the week ended October 16th averaged 913,000 barrels per day (down 2.56% versus a week ago, down 8.33% versus a year ago); stocks totaled 19.721 mil barrels (down 1.43% versus a week ago, down 7.69% versus last year); corn use for the week was 90.7 mil bu (93.1 mil last week) and versus the 97.7 mil bu needed to meet USDA projections.

Crude oil is in one of the least volatile trading ranges in history. The energy department and those around the world see 40 dollars a barrel as an acceptable price, with transportation flat since June. Prices are just above break even for many refineries.

With no carry in the board and basis levels still firm producers are actively selling corn right out of the field. With prices ranging between $3.90 – $4.00 for October thru December producers should continue to move their grain.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com