Good Morning,

Markets were down sharply overnight and early this morning with a concern over the lack of fiscal stimulus and a second wave of COVID-19. Since the open both markets have rebounded slightly with corn now trading unchanged and soybeans down 3.

Markets look like they are reacting to new Covid cases around the World. New lock downs are developing across Europe. The British Government banned indoor gatherings in London to slow the spread of infection. The US Sec Treasury also stated that getting a stimulus agreement before the November election is going to be difficult and House Democrats are showing no sign of approving a new package.
The bean market has really picked up in volatility over the past 10 days. With the fund position so large, it makes the environment exceedingly dangerous if the relationship with the US and China were to completely come off the rails.

With the recent rally and a great marketing opportunity, producers are advised to make corn sales for O/N at $3.70, December 3.80 and early 2021 in the 3.85 range. Producers should also be watching summer of 2021 and get firm offers in for $3.90-$4.00 range.
Soybean harvest is almost complete which means corn harvest will be in full swing for everyone. This will put pressure on basis in areas for the next month or so.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The crop report that was released Friday had only a few surprises and that was the acres reduction for both corn and beans. Close to million acres of each were taken off the balance sheet which accounted for most of the drop in production. Yields were mostly left alone with only a .1 bushel decrease in corn, which is kind of surprising, when most thought the reduction would be more. The carry out on corn was reduced but many thought we would be closer to 2 billion bushels. The USDA reduced ethanol demand and feed, while leaving exports alone in corn. Yields have been ranging from 100 all the way up to 290 bushels per acre.

The bean carry was reduced below 300 million bushels, with an increase in exports, while yield remained the same. Yields have been highly variable so far this harvest ranging from 15-90 bushels.

Harvest will be close to 60% completed in beans this afternoon and corn at 45% when the government release updated harvest progress.

The US will also see some rain coming to the Eastern Midwest over the next few days, which many farmers will like, considering how dry conditions have been and how dry soybeans are coming out of the fields.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Report Day!!

The USDA will release their October Supply and Demand report at 11am today. Like every report there has been a lot of anticipation building for this one. Yield and stocks will be the big focus. Below are the estimates for today’s report. Check back at 11am for today’s numbers.

USDA 2020-2021 US corn and soybean production (billion bu)
USDA Oct. Average Est. USDA Sept.
Corn Production 14.722 14.808 14.900
Corn Yield 178.4 177.7 178.5
Corn Acres 82.527 83.321 83.473
Soybean Production 4.268 4.282 4.313
Soybean Yield 51.9 51.6 51.9
Soybean Acres 82.289 82.922 83.020

USDA 2020-21 Ending stocks(billion bu)
USDA Oct. Average Est. USDA Sept.
Wheat .883 .887 .925
Corn 2.167 2.113 2.503
Soybeans .290 .369 .460

I believe it is very important for producers to keep in mind how long the funds positions currently are. They are long 156,000 corn and 278,000 soybean contracts. If the data in today’s report produces a negative response, the market is vulnerable to a quick washout given the magnitude of the funds length. Take some risk off because this recent climb will end at some point!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are higher this morning led by soybeans and wheat weather threats and strong demand.

Chinese buying continues to build ahead of tomorrow’s report. We could see another 4-6 cargoes of beans and even some corn to be reported in the next few days. The Chinese haven’t bought any corn in the past couple of weeks as their focus has been soybeans. The Chinese are said to be securing beans for December/January and corn for the April/May time frame as they monitor South American weather that is delaying planting.
The bottom line is that dry areas of Mato Grosso and surrounding districts will see showers, but farmers will be faced with a difficult decision on whether that will provide enough moisture to risk planting soybeans, with a hot dry forecast in place for the following week, or whether they will continue to wait. The final size of the Brazilian crop is not yet in question. There’s still time to produce a good crop. But the delays could significantly lengthen the U.S. export season this winter, further reducing U.S. soybean supplies, which is why we see continued buying in the U.S. market this morning.

We have had a very nice run in corn and soybeans over the last few weeks that has given producers the opportunity to lock in some positive margin. I would advise producers to continue to make sales as this market climbs because there is a limit to the upside. Ethanol margins are shrinking fast and as we head into the winter driving months’ demand for ethanol will shrink. Let’s not forget how quickly the market fell out of bed in March when COVID-19 hit. With the cold and flu season approaching fast and no end in sight for COVID we could fall again at any time.
Get sales on the books and offers in with your buyers today so that if we get a bearish surprise in tomorrow’s report you are covered.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are higher again this morning with corn up 4, soybeans up 9 and wheat up 15. Yesterday and today’s rally are a result of European and South American weather issues. These issues are pushing Wheat and Soybeans higher and pulling corn along with it.
Friday’s WASDE report from the USDA holds upside price risk on yield and on the inclusion of the FSA acreage data. The October report is where the USDA takes data from the FSA and RMA data and adjusts the planted acres. Yield numbers on corn are expected to drop slightly to 177.7 which is down from the September 178.5 estimate. Soybean estimates are expected to remain unchanged if not higher due to favorable weather. Ending stocks for corn are estimated at 2.113 billion bushel while soybeans are estimated at 390 million bushel.

December corn continues to hang around the $3.88 range on the CBOT and should trade within a 10-15 cent range of this level for a while. With a 2 billion bushel carryout expected now and the majority of harvest ahead of us it will be difficult to get to the next target level ($4.05) until harvest is wrapped up and we have a better idea of production.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com