Good Morning,

Markets are firmer to start the day with corn up 2 and soybeans up 9 ahead of todays report. Estimates for todays report can be found below and will be updated after the 11am release.

2019/20 carryout (billion bu.)
September 11 report Ave. Est. August report
Corn 2.253 2.234 2.228
Soybeans .575 .600 .615

2020/21 carryout (billion bu.)
September 11 report Ave. Est. August report
Corn 2.503 2.451 2.756
Soybeans .460 .465 .610

2020 Yield(bpa)
September 11 report Ave. Est. August report
Corn 178.5 178.3 181.8
Soybeans 51.9 51.8 53.3

2020 US Production (billion bu.)
September 11 report Ave. Est. August report
Corn 14.900 14.898 15.278
Soybeans 4.313 4.295 4.425

Make sure you have firm offers in for corn and soybeans ahead of the report, the highest prices are often seen 3-5 minutes after the report is released.

Reminder that we will be open for grain receiving on Saturday from 7-5.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are lower overnight and this morning as Fridays report becomes the focus for traders. Last nights crop ratings showed corn dropping slightly to 61% G/E while soybeans remained unchanged at 65% G/E. Corn % dent jumped to 79% which is up 16% from last week and 8% higher than the average. This should come as no surprise as this years crop has been ahead on maturity all season.
Fridays report will be the focus for traders as they look to see where production and carryout end up. Current estimates show the 19/20 corn carryout up slightly from the August report(6 million bu) while the 20/21 carryout is down 305 million bu. Yield estimates are guessed at 178.3 bpa which is off from the USDA’s August estimate of 181.8. 2020 US production is estimated at 14.898 billion bu.
While these numbers do appear to be bullish the markets, we are still looking at stocks to use ratio north of 15%. Historically we need this percentage below 10% to see corn near $4/bu!
Take advantage of the recent rally and don’t get caught speculating on how high prices may go. Manage your risk and you will sleep better at night!

If you have old crop corn to move call to find out what options we have for you. In addition to solid prices we have a couple other options that will allow you to finish cleaning out your bins.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are quiet this morning with corn and soybeans both hovering around unchanged following the three-day weekend. The recent rally has given producers a good opportunity to market grain ahead of the upcoming harvest.
Friday we get a look at the USDA’s September Crop report. This will be one of the most important reports in years following the derecho event in Iowa coupled with the flash drought yield losses.
President Trump vowed to end America’s reliance on China. The President threatened to punish any American company that creates jobs overseas and forbid those doing business with China from winning any federal contracts. The worsening political rhetoric has the pros wondering if Beijing will fulfill it pledges on purchases for the Phase 1 trade agreement. China has been a sizable buyer of US beans, corn and even wheat, but continue to lag on other Ag products, manufactured goods and energy. Money managers will likely pay close attention to this situation to see what China’s reaction to President Trump’s new hardline stance is.
The weather models are in agreement as they offer consistently cool/wet outlook for this week. Extended forecasts show some warming and drying out next week. In the meantime low temperatures will dip into the mid to lower 30’s across North Dakota and far northern Minnesota tonight. Otherwise there is no frost event on the radar that would lead to a premature end to the 2020 growing season.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are unchanged in corn and up 2 in soybeans to start the day. The volume of trading was down from the previous two overnight sessions as concerns over crop yields fades and traders look to bank some profits from the recent rally. Chinese demand is a must for the price levels to hold.

China has been actively booking corn out of the US over the last two weeks. Based on the size of the purchases the past two days it suggests that it is Sinograin/COFCO rather than individual buyers. Exporters report that the corn is being sold for February/March shipment out of the Gulf. Unfortunately this appears to come at the expense of the soybeans which has seen their pace slow. The review of the Phase 1 trade deal now has passed with all parties agreeing that China is working to fulfill its pledge. China already has large volumes of corn and soy purchased through December.

After letting the duty-free ethanol imports from the US expire yesterday, Brazil and the US have tentatively worked out a deal to extend the duty-free imports for another 90 days. No new demand is expected as the margins are currently negative to import US ethanol, but the deal buys the Brazilians time to see who wins the election as well.

Informa is expected to release their corn and soy estimates this morning.

Historical charts and trends tell us that the market has put in its high and we could start to slide into late October before we will see a bounce.

Producers should continue to make new crop sales at current levels for any space needs as harvest pressure will be working its way north in the coming weeks.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

August 28, 2020

Good Morning,

Corn market down 1 and soybean up 5 this morning as traders look to consolidate this week’s gains heading into the weekend. It has been a good week in the markets as we have traded higher 4 of the 5 days in corn and 5 of 5 in soybeans. Export sales of corn and soybeans to China and unknown destinations along with dry weather (not here!) have added premium to the markets short term.
While I don’t believe the markets are going to crash short term I would advise producers not to become too bullish as there is still a huge crop in the country even with lowered yields.
Below I have put together some scenarios showing what our stocks to use ratio could look like based on lower yields than currently projected. The USDA is currently using 181.8 bpa and Pro Farmer came out with a 177.5 bpa last week. As you can see either one of these results in a huge carryout. In order for us to get a stocks to use ratio below 10% (historically what we would need to see corn near $4/bu) we would need yield to drop below 165 bpa which is below last year’s yields.

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Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com