Good Morning,

The markets are softer to unchanged this morning with corn down 2 and soybeans up 2.
Last night’s planting progress showed 67% of the nation’s corn planted which compares to 51% last week and 56% on average. Of the major corn producing states only Missouri and Ohio came in below average with most other states significantly ahead of average. Wisconsin was reported at 59% complete compared to 33% last week and 39% for the five year average.
Soybean planting progress came in at 38% complete across the nation compared to 23% last week and 23% on the average. Wisconsin was 35% complete compared to 14% last week and 14% on average.
Traders will focus on today’s USDA report that will be released at 11am. This will give us an update on the old crop S&D numbers as well as the first official estimate of the new crop (2020) S&D tables. Estimates for today’s report are listed below.

2019-20 Ending Stocks (billion bu.)
USDA May estimate Average Estimate April report
Corn 2.098 2.224 2.092
Soybeans .580 .488 .480
Wheat .978 .969 .970

2020-21 Ending Stocks (billion bu.)
USDA May Estimate Average Estimate April Report
Corn 3.318 3.389 NA
Soybeans .405 .430 NA
Wheat .909 .814 NA

As you can see the estimates for the 2020-21 corn ending stocks are HUGE and could potentially become bigger given the planting progress if we have average weather this summer. I talked to a farmer in North Central IL yesterday who said they are about 60% planted in his area and most of the corn and beans could be finished by the weekend given the forecasts. He said they have had plenty of moisture lately that has delayed planting. Despite the wet weather he said they really only need 2 good rains this summer to produce a bumper crop. (1 in early June and 1 in early July) He said it may be time to start looking at the county LDP rate to see how close they get to it!

Check back after 11am for today’s report numbers.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard