Good morning,
Markets were softer overnight with corn down 1 and soybeans down 4.
Expectations were for minimal changes to both corn and soybean carryout for 23/24 and that is essentially what we saw. The corn carryout was taken down 100 mbu thanks to a 50 mbu increase to both export and ethanol demand. The soybean balance remained unchanged as expected.
There were some adjustments to South American production. Argentina corn was lowered 2 million tons while Brazilian corn was lowered 2 million tones and soybeans 1 million tons. The market rallied sharply after the report, but it really felt like we were trading weather after the news. The largest input of the day late on Friday was the COT report. Massive fund buying was noted, and based on late week action we can probably start assuming the short fund position in our grain space is mostly liquidated. So, will they get long for a shot at a weather problem this summer? We don’t see it, but momentum is real. Once it gets rolling, it’s hard to stop.
This past week brought at least a half an inch of rain to a majority of the central and eastern corn belt with some heavier totals in northern and western IA and parts of the SE belt. We currently have some rain moving across eastern NE and through IA and that system could expand throughout the day. The next 7 days are expected to be dry for a majority of the northern belt including northern IA, but the southern and eastern corn belt is expected to receive heavier rains. The current 6-10 looks wetter than normal, especially for IA and the current 8-14 day continues to hold chances for precipitation above normal and brings in some cooler temps.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
