Good morning,


Grain markets are showing a little sympathy this morning after last week’s selloff. Corn is currently up 11 in old crop and 4 in new crop. Soybeans are up 17 and wheat is up 20.


Few changes were made on Friday to old crop stocks.  The bearish new crop balance sheet came in about 100 million bushels to the high side for corn and 30 million bushels for soybeans.  Believe it or not the first balance sheet in soybeans tends to be the highest of the year. Beans over time have tended to beat the USDA demand estimates.  Corn, however, is not the same as demand can be more erratic.  With crop losses in Argentina and lower production in the Ukraine, this is probably one of the years demand could perform better than the USDA expectations.   The USDA is also using a corn yield that is 5 bushels better than the record of 177, which is attainable, but needs close to ideal weather to achieve.


USDA 2022/23 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

  May 2023 Average Est. April 2023
Corn 1.417 1.366 1.342
Soybeans .215 .212 .210
Wheat .598 .603 .598


USDA 2023/24 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

  May 2023 Average Est. April 2023
Corn 2.222 2.094 NA
Soybeans .335 .293 NA
Wheat .556 .602 NA


Rain was widespread across the Plains and Midwest over the weekend and continued in the southern Plains up into the central belt this morning.  US weather is still leaning on the wet side, amounts will be less than last week.  The Dakotas look drier this week with only small amounts of rain in the forecast.  Kansas is going to get rain, but it’s too late to help wheat at this point.


Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard