Good morning,

The markets are down sharply this morning with corn down 12 soybeans down 5 and wheat down 32.

Rains are falling around the Central US and amounts have been from .20-.80 inches.  So far light rains, with more forecast into Wednesday of next week.  Temps will be on the cool side.  It looks like Iowa, Minnesota and the Dakota’s are going to see their planting window go wide open in the next 10 days as much of the rain into the South and East.  Newly planted crops will start in excellent conditions for Illinois and there is plenty of time to plant soybeans.  Much of the corn has been planted in the past 48 hours.

Monday’s planting progress was exactly what the trade was expecting (49%) which spawns the question whether the US corn yield is less with half of the crop planted in the US by the middle of May and a reasonable planting window for most of the Midwest ahead. Historical performance of years that have made the 49% level by MidMay are not known for below trend yields without a major summer event. One of the greatest deviations from trend to the upside was 2009 which was 48% planted by week 19 (this week). That year the yield was 8% above trend. At the same time the fastest modern planting year on record (2012) was 25% below trend by the final tally due to drought. The takeaway from the progress logged by the government is the yield prospect in the US is very much a 50/50 item based on summer weather.


Have a safe day!


Garry Gard