Good Morning,

Corn was up 6 and soybeans were up 11 to start the day.
US planting is expected to be close to 70% complete for corn and 55% in beans. Overall good planting weather has put the US off to the best start in years. Many in Illinois will be complete with all planting this week. The 10 day forecast has rain coming into the Central US that will aid the early planted crops. Rain totals will be 1-2 inches in most of the Midwest. There will be about 3 different storms moving through most of the growing area over the next 14 days. Temps start to warm up next week. Other than the Dakota’s and Canadian Prairie, the weather looks to be pretty normal for Spring.
South American weather is not normal. This ongoing drought is really going to take a toll on crops. The 10 day forecast is even drier than it was yesterday. There is no rain forecast for Central and Eastern Brazil for the next 10 days, that will put the drought at 9 weeks by next Friday.
Yesterday’s export numbers saw a cancellation of 18.7 million bushels of corn by an unknown buyer. This is thought to be China, which was one of the reasons I think things could turn bearish. China has outstanding commitments of 512.4 million bushels of corn that are scheduled for delivery by Sept 1st. There is some real danger here in the market if we continue to see cancelations. The funds have been long, and will want to keep their longs for the growing season, which I understand, but will be tested if we see cancelations. I think we have gotten off the train and are now riding the bus from the movie Speed. Corn longs will be playing a game of Chicken with US Ethanol plants and potential Chinese cancelations, either of which could cause the bus to slow down and blow up.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard