Good morning,

All commodities are taking a hit this morning with corn down 12, soybeans down 18 and wheat down 11.

Corn planting progress came in at 49% complete this week, up from 26% last week, 21% last year, and the 42% five-year average; corn emergence doubled to 12%, up from 5% LY and the 11% 5YA. Soybean planting rose from 19% to 35% done, up from 11% LY and the 21% 5YA, with emergence there initially reported at 9%, above 3% LY and the 4% 5YA.

Reports out this morning that China has cancelled another 11 million bushels of old crop corn purchases. This is the third cancellation in the last 3 weeks which brings totals over 30 million bushels. China has more than 100 million bushels of old crop corn on the books, but traders are now wondering how much of this will also be cancelled in the coming weeks and months.


Chinese customs reported April soybean imports at 7.26 mmt below a year ago levels of 9 mmt.  January through April are up 7% at 30.29 mmt.  The downturn in imports suggests the world economy won’t be able to count much on China’s domestic engine of growth, and as the nation re-exports some of its imports, it also reinforces the extent of weakness in some of its major trading partner economies.

The Funds see ending stocks growing this year to 2 billion bushels which we will likely see on the USDA crop report on Friday.  New crop bean ending stocks are expected to move close to 300 million bushels as well.  The slowing Chinese economy, bank default risk and high interest rates a putting a lid on prices. I usually don’t suggest selling in a down market, but if you have old crop left to move it may be time. If you are less than 40% sold on new crop, I would suggest adding to your sales.


Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard