Markets are slightly firmer to end the week with corn up 1 and soybeans up 4 to start the day. Yesterday’s export sales report showed corn in the middle of the range of expectations but expectations are low with the trend of lower weekly volumes. US corn continues to lag South American offers in the November thru January time slot.
Weather forecasts remain colder and wetter for the first half of November with the second half showing normal temperatures and near to below normal precipitation.
One week from today the USDA will issue its last Crop Production and Supply and Demand report for the year. Traders and producers are hoping for a drop in yield and harvested acres in this report to support and possibly give the market a little life. It is interesting to note that in 21 of the last 28 November WASDE reports, the trend in yield has been to follow the October report. (Exp – If the October report had an increase in yield, the November report would also have an increase) Based on early reports from the fields this year I would not be surprised to see an increase in yield next Friday. We continue to receive reports locally and across the Midwest that yields are much better than expected.
I would advise producers to take advantage of the historically tight basis levels we are seeing across the Midwest to get some basis sales made for November thru July. Lock in the basis levels and price it out when the CBOT breaks out of the current sideways trend.
Have a Safe Day!