After mutual statements of optimism about trade talks from Presidents Trump and Xi yesterday, the markets responded with sharp price gains led by soybeans. While this was a great move in the markets (corn up 3 and soybeans up 30) producers need to remember that this was just a knee jerk reaction to a “tweet” by our president and holds no water until a deal is reached. We have seen the market move both ways over the last several months on comments that were made. We also need to remember that if a deal is worked out, the Chinese have found protein replacements for US soy products over the last six months which means their demand will not come back to previous levels. We also have to look at how competitive our soybean prices are on the world market. Prior to yesterday’s rally, US soybeans were $.70/bu. more expensive than Brazilian soybeans! What could be key for the US is if we can get a deal done in the very short term with China. We have about a 10 week window before South American soybeans become readily available again.
Next Thursday’s USDA report will be the focus of traders early next week. Yesterday private analyst FC Stone pegged the corn yield at 181.4 vs. their October estimate of 182.7 and dropped their soybean yield from 54 to 53.2.
Market movers the next 5 trading days will be:
We have a HOT DEAL for producers looking to move corn in April/May this coming year. You can lock in a basis of -10 CK19!!! Give us a call for details.
Have a Safe Weekend!