Good Morning,


Markets are stronger to start the week with corn up 4 and soybeans up 9.


A Covid-19 vaccine has been developed at the University of Oxford. Early analysis had stopped 70% of participants falling ill.  The effectiveness rose to 90% for one of two regimens, using half a dose followed by a full dose later, close to the same results as Pfizer and Moderna.

Reports that the Russian ag ministry is considering putting a duty on grain exports to preserve domestic supplies is supporting wheat which is up 9.  The Ag ministry is already willing to subsidize wheat millers to lower flour prices.  An export tax would limit further sales out of Russian and would be bullish to European and US wheat prices.

The weekend weather was dry and temperatures were above normal for Brazil and Argentina, crop stress is increasing.  The 10 day forecast has about as dry a forecast as you can have for Brazil, which is really unusual. Southern Brazil and Argentina do have better chances of rain, and are about the best that have been forecast for months, with 1-4 inches coming in the next 10 days.  The 11-15 day model is also dry for Northern Brazil, while Argentina should see more rain accumulate.
Prices faded against this exact same rally on Friday, going into a weekend with covid risk abound.  This rally probably sticks today, with news out of Russia, and more dry weather for Brazil.  Argentina and Southern Brazil getting rain is probably holding the market back from bigger gains.  $4.30 appears to be the ceiling for CZ at the moment with strength fading as we get closer to that level.


Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard