Good Morning,

Markets are lower to start the week and end the month. Corn is currently down 3, soybeans are down 18 and wheat is down 11. The overnight session started out higher with beans taking another stab at 12 dollars futures, missing with a high of 11.99 before falling back and settling lower in the early morning trade.  Corn futures traded up to 4.395, making a new high, but also failing and heading lower.  Just about every market is lower this morning, whether it be New York, gold or bonds. Even the US dollar is lower.

Russia may increase the size of its grain export quota planned for Feb. 15-June 30 to 17.5 million tonnes from 15 million tonnes, the agriculture ministry said.

There are rumors that China is preparing to allow another 5.0 mmt of work corn purchases via TRQ/GMO licenses.  China has been mostly absent recently for corn and new bean purchases, even cancelling and rolling out some cargoes to next year.

The bulls continue to talk about dryness in Argentina and Brazil, yet the weather models don’t quite back it up.  Mato Grosso is forecast to see .75 to 1.5 inches of rain in the next 10 days.  Argentina just received 1 to 3.5 inches of rain over the weekend.  Some heavy rains are forecast this week with up to 5 inches forecast in Eastern Brazil.  Temps will be between 80 to 100 degrees, depending on the placement of rain.  This forecast looks bearish, and am not sure we are trading weather anyway.


Looks like profit taking going into the end of the month for corn and beans. The weather forecast alone, should have prices down more than they are.  At some point this market is due for a bigger correction, and I guess we’ll know it when we see it. The market is dangerously long.


Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard