Good Morning,
Markets are up 1 this morning as traders anxiously await the USDA’s numbers that will come out at 11am. (Estimates are listed below)
US Production (billion bushels/million acres)
USDA November Avg. Estimate USDA October
Corn Production 14.721 14.778
Corn Yield 180.0 180.7
Harvested Area 81.749 81.767
Soybean Production 4.676 4.690
Soy Yield 52.9 53.1
Harvested Area 88.303 88.348
US 2018/19 Ending Stocks (billion bushels)
USDA November Avg. Estimate USDA October
Wheat .958 .956
Corn 1.773 1.813
Soybeans .898 .885
2018/19 World Ending Stocks (billion bushels)
USDA November Avg. Estimate USDA October
Wheat 259.45 260.18
Corn 158.82 159.35
Soybeans 110.91 110.04
Production estimates are lower than the October report for corn and soybeans but how much lower today’s report comes in will dictate what the markets do. I believe the current estimates have already been traded but feel we could see a short spike up if the numbers do come at these levels. Long term a 1.7 US carryout and a 158 world carryout are neutral to negative the markets long term. We need the US stocks to Use ratio to drop below 10% in order for us to see CBOT prices trade above $4. With a 1.7 US carryout and current use at 15.105 we are looking at a 12% stocks to use ratio. Ending stocks will need to drop below 1.6 in order for us to reach a number below 10%.
Check back at 11am for the updated numbers.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com
