Good Morning,

Markets are quiet ahead of the potential storm that comes today. USDA report out at 11am (numbers below) and Chinese and US trade talks begin in Washington today. Both could send the markets in a bullish or bearish direction. Any drop in yield or harvested acres could add more anxiety to the markets while an increase in either would most definitely ease concerns and send the markets south. As you can see by the estimates below, the market is looking for a drop in yield and acres which sets the stage for a big shock if yield is actually reported higher. (we have seen this before!) With very little harvest actually completed nationally the majority of the yield report will come from satellite data and weather models from September.
The Chinese and US high level trade talks kick off today and we should expect to see a lot of headlines from these meetings over the next couple days.

My advice to producers is to take some risk off at current levels (set a floor) and add firm offers for additional sales above the market if we get any spike on the report’s release. These firm offers will have to be in by 10:45 in order for us to get them entered.

Be sure to check back after 11am for the updated report.

2019/20 US Production (Billion Bu)
USDA Oct Ave. Est. USDA Sept.
Corn Yield 168.4 167.5 168.2
Corn Production 13.779 13.684 13.799
Corn Harvested Acres 81.8 81.649 82.017
Soy Yield 46.9 47.3 47.9
Soy Production 3.55 3.583 3.633
Soy Harvested Acres 75.6 75.705 75.866

2019/20 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
USDA Oct Ave. Est. USDA Sept.
Wheat 1.043 1.015 1.014
Corn 1.929 1.784 2.19
Soybeans .460 .521 .640

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard