Markets are mixed ahead of today’s USDA report. Trade is anticipating record corn and soybean yields that will increase stocks. Corn is down 1 and soybeans are up 2 as support levels are challenged in both commodities. Whether or not corn support levels hold will depend on the reaction to a potential nationwide yield around 182 bpa and a carryout that could increase another 150-200 million bushels.
Initially we may see trade react negatively to this report but longer term could see things stabilize if traders begin to question the impact of heavy rains the past couple weeks. We must remember that today’s numbers are from a survey that was completed on October 1st.
Estimates for today’s report:
USDA 2018/19 Production (billion bu)
USDA October Ave. Estimate USDA September
Corn Production 14.872 14.827
Corn Yield 181.8 181.3
Harvested Acres 81.72 81.80
Bean Production 4.733 4.693
Bean Yield 53.3 52.8
Harvested Acres 88.72 88.90
USDA Ending Stocks (billion bu)
USDA September Ave. Estimate USDA August
Wheat .950 .935
Corn 1.919 1.774
Soybeans .898 .845
Have as Safe Day!