Yesterday’s USDA report was a pleasant surprise for producers with a little boost in the markets. The rally yesterday was a result of lower US yields and technical and fundamental buying that followed. US yields were dropped to 180.7 from 181.3 last month and below the average guess of 181.8. A cut in feed demand of 25 million bushels due to sorghum feeding and an increase in exports of 75 million bushels resulted in a 1.813 billion bu. carryout.
Corn is unchanged and soybeans are trading 5 higher on the open as we head into a favorable harvest weather weekend. Despite yesterday’s news and slight increase in the markets, I believe we are range bound until something drastic happens with the demand side. (exports/politics) 1.813 billion bushels is by no means a tight carryout and will offer resistance to the corn market going forward. I look for CZ18 to remain range bound $3.50-3.80 on the board.
Here are yesterday’s report numbers:
USDA 2018/19 Production (billion bu)
USDA October Ave. Estimate USDA September
Corn Production 14.778 14.872 14.827
Corn Yield 180.7 181.8 181.3
Harvested Acres 81.8 81.72 81.80
Bean Production 4.690 4.733 4.693
Bean Yield 53.1 53.3 52.8
Harvested Acres 88.3 88.72 88.90
USDA Ending Stocks (billion bu)
USDA September Ave. Estimate USDA August
Wheat .956 .950 .935
Corn 1.813 1.919 1.774
Soybeans .885 .898 .845
Have a Safe Weekend!