Good morning,
Markets were slightly higher overnight with corn up 1 and soybeans up 6.
We have seen significant selloff in the last few days in both commodities with corn down close to 30 cents since the first of October. The funds have drastically changed their position in the last five days. They were short 39,000 contracts last Wednesday and are now short 123,000 contracts as of last night’s close.
The national corn harvest was reported at 47% complete as of Sunday night. This is up from 30% last week, 42% last year and 39% for the five-year average. Favorable weather over the next couple weeks should keep things well ahead of pace for the US farmer.
All of Brazil will get rain at one time or another during the next ten days to two weeks. Some of the rain that arrived in Argentina came too late for some of the wheat across the northern areas and the southern areas will remain dry over the next week. The second week of the forecast does call for precipitation for southern Argentina, needed to boost summer crop plantings.
I expect space to become an issue across the Midwest in the next two weeks as harvest progresses and farmers fill their on farm storage. We entered harvest with the largest stocks since 2020 and the US farmer entered harvest with the largest inventory on farm in the last 20 years. Add to this equation the record yields and you can see where space becomes an issue. Look for basis levels to start widening out as space becomes a premium.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
