Better US weather forecasts, fund consolidation and increasing yield reports have led to softer markets the last two days. With a lack of fresh news in the market traders appear poised to wait on next which could have a lot of market movers. Next Thursday’s Crop production and S&D report will give us an updated look at planted and harvested acres, yield and demand updates. Private analyst FC Stone released their estimates yesterday and put corn yield at 169.3 bpa which is above the USDA’s September estimate of 168.2. This should be a reminder to producers that things are not bad everywhere especially in the west.
Next week will also bring the Chinese trade team to Washington DC to continue talks on trade and tariffs. This may sound like a broken record, but there has been a lot of positive news in the past month with tariff delays that has most feeling that things are finally moving in the right direction.
Export sales this morning were on the low end with 19.4 million bushel compared to trade estimates of 15.7-31.5. Soybean sales were also soft at 38.1 million bushel compared to trade estimates of 33.1-51.4.
I would encourage producers to not only be looking at your 2019/20 crop marketing plan, but start to take action on the 2020/21 crop. With the strong potential for 94-95 million acres of corn to be planted this market has a much greater downside than upside. I would recommend locking in some cash sales at $3.85-3.90 range to take some risk off the table.
Have a Safe Day!