Good Morning,

Softer markets prior to the release of today’s USDA Crop Production and S&D report. Corn is currently down 1 and soybeans are down 4. The report will be released at 11am today. Estimates listed below and will be updated with today’s numbers after they are released. The primary focus of today’s report appears to be on yield with many believing the 178 bpa mark is critical to the balance sheet. The range of estimates is 175-180 bpa.
The soybean market has continued to drift lower and is currently trading at new contract lows for SX at $8.24. The USDA average yield guess for today is 52.2 bpa, above last month’s yield of 51.6 bpa. The range of estimates is 50.9 to 53.8.
Yesterday’s crop conditions report showed US corn conditions increase 1% to 68% G/E. They put harvest at 5% completed, 86% dented and 35% mature. Wisconsin was 70% dented compared to 55% on average and 21% mature compared to 10% on average.
The US/China trade war doesn’t seem to be close to resolution. The US threatens more tariffs, China is not accepting license applications from US companies, confirming fears that US company operations in China and access to its markets may be disrupted. China revised its 2018/19 soybean imports forecast to 83.65 mmt, down 10.2 mmt from last month’s forecast.

USDA 2018/19 US Production (billion bu)
USDA Sept 12 Average Estimate USDA August
Corn Yield 181.3 177.8 178.4
Corn Production 14.827 14.529 14.586
Soybean Yield 52.8 52.2 51.6
Soybean Production 4.693 4.649 4.586

USDA 2018/19 Ending Stocks (billion bu)
USDA Sept 12 Average Estimate USDA August
Wheat .935 .941 .935
Corn 1.774 1.639 1.684
Soybeans .845 .830 .785

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard