We saw a nice bump in the markets yesterday, but unfortunately there was not much to fuel that rally which has led to the markets trading lower this morning. Corn is currently down 3 and soybeans are down 6. We are in the time of year where the traders will continue to see yield reports on the high and low end and trade based on their bias. I would expect the markets to remain choppy all thru harvest as data continues to come in. Generally, yields are coming in less impressive in IL/IN but better in IA.
Harvest progress was reported at 18% complete last night compared to 10% last week and 15% for the 5-year average. Old crop basis levels continue their decline as processors are seeing new corn. We have seen Midwest basis levels drop 10-50 cents in the last two days depending on your market area.
We will have the USDA stocks report out on Thursday with the average guesses for September 1 2021, corn carryout at 1.167 billion bushel. Soybeans are projected at 172 million bushels while wheat is projected at 1.857 billion bushels. My thought is that regardless of how low corn and bean stocks are on Thursday’s report, we will not see much of a market reaction due to harvest pressure.
Have a Safe Day!