Markets are quiet to start the day as traders prepare for this todays September 1st stocks report that will be released at 11am.
Expectations are for NASS to up 2019 soy crop by 23m bu. to 3.575B bu. Average trade estimate for 9/1/20 corn stocks at 2.250B bu is on par with the September 2019 corn stocks although range (high to low) in estimates of over 450M bu. is quite large.
Today’s USDA Grain Stocks report could potentially reflect a revision to last year’s corn crop in similar fashion to how the previous year’s soybean crop has always been reviewed in this report. In the past, USDA did not include a re-examination of the previous year’s corn crop in this report, instead doing so if/when necessary as part of the Annual Crop Production report in January, as well as in the 5-yr Census revisions.
In the past we would not expect USDA to revise last year’s corn crop in this morning’s report as it has not been part of the methodology for the September Grain Stocks report. However, NASS officials have confirmed they did, in fact, go through the same process for corn as always has been the case for soybeans for the release of the report and it will include a revision to last year’s corn crop “if necessary.” This will be part of the September Grain Stocks report permanently for corn moving forward.
USDA September 1 Grain Stocks(billion bu)
9/30/20 Ave. Est. 2019
Corn 1.995 2.250 2.221
Soybeans .523 .576 .909
Wheat 2.159 2.242 2.346
Have a Safe Day!