Good morning,

Markets are higher this morning as traders prepare for the 11am Stocks report. Corn is up 7 and soybeans are up 8 at the time of this writing.

Here are the estimates for today’s report that will be released at 11am.

USDA September 1 U.S. Grain Stocks (billion bushels)

USDA Sept Average Est USDA 2020
Corn 1.236 1.155 1.919
Soybeans .256 .174 .525
Wheat 1.78 1,852 2.158


The USDA will release Sep 1 stocks today. Trade est US Sep 1 wheat stocks 1,852 vs 2,158 ly, corn 1,155 vs 1,919 ly, soybeans 174 vs 525 ly.  Over the last few USDA stocks report, USDA numbers were below trade est, futures were sharply higher. Feed demand will have to have fallen off a cliff for this report to be bearish as stocks were exhausted to finish the season.  Drought conditions and early maturity have started an early harvest where supplies moved into the system in early September instead of October.  Supplies also weren’t able to leave the US Gulf with shutdowns in New Orleans.  There could easily be some comingling of old and new crop stocks on this report.  Premiums were also high with corn and beans trading 1 dollar over to get supplies to market.

The US Government came to an agreement to avoid a shutdown, with funds available until December.  One thing at a time, the debt ceiling will be next followed by debates re: the relief and infrastructure bills.


Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard