Week Ending 1/2/2026

A trade shortened holiday week didn’t keep the funds from adding to their short position in corn last week. March, May and July futures all lost 12 cents and now have March futures testing their $4.35 support level of the last two months. The funds are short 39,208 corn and long 85,261 soybean contracts with the latest CFTC report covering through December 23^rd. (We should be up to date on both CFTC and export sales by the end of this week)

The job of the market over the next couple months is to cut corn acres either by increasing soybean prices or lowering corn prices. There should be a natural decline in acres due to rotations back to soybeans, unfortunately soybean futures continue to be on the decline and support corn. The recent $11 billion bridge payment that was announced on December 31^st will not help cut corn acres either. With corn receiving $44.36/acre and soybeans $30.88/acre the incentive to decrease corn acreage is diminished. These payments could buy or retain acres in the fringe areas, where $44 increases income 8-10%. With corn having a greater upside in yield I believe the markets are going to struggle to take many acres away unless we see a significant shift in values between the two commodities. If we fail to see an acreage shift it will be difficult to see carryout in 2027 fall below 2 billion bushels which would mean corn values long term remain flat at best.

For us to have a chance at trading nearby futures north of $4.50 on a consistent basis we need some sort of production issue in South America or weather issues here in the United States this spring. Argentina will be the first area to watch as its corn crop was recently planted. Brazil’s safrinha corn crop will not go into the ground until after the soybeans are harvested in late January and February. It seems like we will continue to see a lid on March futures around the $4.50 level until something new comes into the picture.

We are one week away from the much-anticipated January WASDE. We should start to see estimates from private groups this week. I am expecting a drop in yield that should be offset by a drop in feed demand. The key could be any adjustment to export demand as that has been very strong to this point. I will share those estimates in next week’s recap. In the meantime, I would advise working with your Didion sales representatives to get offers in place ahead of the report. We often have a lot of opportunities to capture good values in the first 30 minutes following the release of data when algorithmic trading takes place. I look for the markets to remain flat thru the first quarter of the year as we work thru a large harvest and get a better understanding of what export demand looks like long term, how south Americas crop is progressing and what planting intentions look like in the US.

Upcoming reports