Corn continued to find support last week and closed higher for the eighth week in a row. Nearby futures are trading at eight-month highs as managed money continues to pour into the markets since late November. March futures closed 2 higher while May and July futures each gained 4 cents. The funds are long 325,684 corn and 64,921 soybean contracts.
President Trump threatened an additional 10% tariff to China starting February 1st, stating that the fentanyl trade with Mexico and Canada needed to stop. Trump has already put 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada that would also start Feb 1st. Mexico, Canada and China said they would impose similar tariffs against the US. There is some speculation that the weekly export sales to “unknown” destinations could be China making purchases to appease Trump. China is currently reducing expectations of corn imports as it manages lower corn prices for its producers. Cash prices in China are at 5-year lows so importing more corn would seem to be counterproductive. The US Attaché to China also reports China has stopped auctions of imported corn from its inventories while increasing domestic purchases for its reserve program.
Argentina’s government announced that they would be temporarily cutting taxes on grain exports, with soybeans down from 33% to 26%, soy products down from 31% to 24.5%, and both corn and wheat down from 12% to 9.5%; the country’s farm groups had been asking the government for help on that front due to drought and unfavorable prices. The tax cut is currently scheduled to end at the end of June but could become permanent. This is significant because it makes their crop that much cheaper when competing with US exports.
South American weather remains in the forefront with the wetter Euro and GFS models. Cooler and wetter outlooks are sliding into the southern regions of Argentina and Brazil which are in the most need of the relief. How much damage is permanent is up for debate. Brazil’s 1st corn crop is less than 10% harvested to date and the 2nd crop, which is four times the size, is just starting its planting season.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 2/11/2025 | Crop Production |
| 3/11/2025 | Crop Production |
| 3/31/2025 | Grain Stocks/Prospective Plantings |
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com
