Corn rebounded from last week’s selloff with no guidance due to the government shutdown and no reports. It appears that traders are trading a smaller US corn yield than the last government report. (186.7 bpa) December corn ended the week 10 cents higher while March and May futures ended the week 8 and 7 cents higher respectively. The funds are estimated to be short 91,323 corn and long 19,258 soybean contracts. The lack of USDA reports also includes the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) which is an independent US federal agency.
Last Wednesday, President Trump indicated that the US and China were embroiled in a trade war, and that the US would be “nowhere” without tariffs. Chinese President Xi indicated that the Chinese population should sense a crisis and carry forward the spirit of the struggle. Further, Xi suggested that the door is open for US trade talks, but China is ready to fight to the end, developing through struggle rather than compromise.
Former US Secretary Vilsack made comments on Thursday that US soybean farmers may never get back the Chinese market share lost in the trade war. China has built a relationship with Brazil that’s unlikely to change and China’s soybean buying will not go back to the US immediately. Brazilian soybeans are currently trading at a $1.20 premium to US soybeans and are still being purchased by China due to the trade war.
Brazilian crop agency Conab estimated the country’s 2025/26 soybean harvest at a record 177.64 MMT, basically unchanged from their September 177.67 MMT estimate; total corn output was pegged at 138.60 MMT, up from 138.28 MMT last month due to a slight increase in planted area. Brazil will continue to increase acreage which is going to put pressure on the US export demand if they have favorable weather conditions.
I would estimate corn harvest to be 45% complete nationwide based on weather. Historically corn harvest is 40% complete this time of year. Basis remains wide as anticipation of space issues continue as we head deeper into harvest. I would anticipate basis to strengthen when we get to the December timeframe.
