Despite a volatile week in the corn markets, they managed to continue their sideways pattern. An early week selloff was followed by a mid-week reversal allowed corn to gain back most of its losses. Following a bearish USDA Stocks report on Tuesday the markets rallied Wednesday on news from President Trump that he was going to help the US producer by rerouting tariff revenues to them and that he would be meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 4 weeks. This is much earlier than expected and looks to be supportive the soybean markets. Strength in the soybean markets spilled over into the corn markets, pulling both higher late in the week. December, March and May futures all ended the week 3 cents lower after trading as much as 13 lower early in the week. The funds ended the week short 98,323 corn and long 2,258 soybean contracts.
On Tuesday the USDA released their September 1st grain stocks report. Corn and wheat stocks came in well above pre-port estimates, giving the markets a bearish tone. The biggest take-away from the report was the 182-million-bushel shortfall in feed residual use which adds to the current 2025-26 carry-out estimates.
USDA September 1 Stocks (billion bushel)
| USDA September 2025 | Average Trade Estimate | USDA September 2024 | |
| Corn | 1.532 | 1.337 | 1.763 |
| Soybeans | .316 | .323 | .342 |
| Wheat | 2.120 | 2.043 | 1.992 |
On Wednesday the government shut down which will have an impact on future government reports.
With the Congress continuing to negotiate votes to continue funding the government, trade is operating on innuendo and intuition. Missing some of these reports will not have a big impact, but there are some that could surprise us when they are resumed. US corn export offers remain the most competitive, so it is assumed that sales will continue the merits of economics. No sales will be announced during the closure, and the only export indications we will have will be on Monday for grain already sold earlier in the season and in the process of loading on ships. The US harvest should be proceeding as normal to above normal, but again crop progress won’t be known specifically, as that too is a report published by the USDA. With three days of shutdown accomplished, the odds of a quick turnaround and a WASDE/Production report being released on October 9th are very low.
Argentina’s corn crop is up to 20% planted, compared to an average of 16%. Modest rains are expected to be over 70% of the country, with the better accumulations in the eastern half. Both Argentina and Brazil are projected to increase acres and production this year.
Corn harvest was reported at 18% complete this past year, which is right in line with the 5-year average but slightly behind last year.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 10/9/2025 | Crop Production * |
| *All reports are on hold. |
