A meltdown in the equity markets following Tuesday’s election results spilled over into the commodity markets as the funds continue to liquidate the commodity space in a risk-off environment. December corn ended the week 7 cents lower while March and May futures ended the week 6 cents lower. As of Friday, the funds are long 8,795 corn contracts and 127,727 soybean contracts.
The USDA will release its November WASDE on Tuesday November 10th at 11:00am. It feels like the bias is for a slightly lower yield than the October report, but still north of 180 bushels per acre.
USDA 2026 US Yield (Bushels per Acre)
| USDA November | Average Trade Est. | USDA October | |
| Corn | 180.3 | 181.2 | |
| Soybeans | 53.5 | 53.1 |
USDS 2026 Production (Billion Bushels)
| USDA November | Average Trade Est. | USDA October | |
| Corn | 15.961 | 16.037 | |
| Soybeans | 4.597 | 4.562 |
USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA November | Average Trade Est. | USDA October | |
| Corn | 1.840 | 1.849 | |
| Soybeans | .331 | .315 | |
| Wheat | .746 | .740 |
USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA November | Average Trade Est. | USDA October | |
| Corn | 281.44 | 280.44 | |
| Soybeans | 124.73 | 124.28 | |
| Wheat | 276.44 | 276.04 |
Roughly half the time we see the USDA move yields in the same direction in both the October and November reports. Recent years have shown less volatility in yield adjustments in November with 2023 as the outlier. This will most likely be the last adjustment we see prior to the final report in January as the USDA historically does not update production in its December report.
The U.S., Russia and Ukraine are scheduled to hold a trilateral meeting Tuesday November 10th, with an end of attacks and a potential grain export corridor among the topics to be discussed. China said it has been in contact with the U.S. and Russia about a meeting between the three country’s leaders at the APEC summit in China later in November.
Corn harvest is largely done but there are pockets of delays in both east (OH/MI) & West (IA/NE/SD) that hold us behind average.
The WASDE Report and the Ukraine-Russia trilateral talks all happen on Tuesday, which will confirm market expectations or break them. The markets have been bearish over the last two months for multiple reasons. With prices near the June 30th lows I feel we are at or near the bottom and will start to reverse course in the next couple weeks.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 11/9/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 11/10/2026 | Crop Production |
| 12/10/2026 | Crop Production |
