Following a choppy week of trade the markets settled slightly lower last week with March futures losing 3 cents while May and July futures lost 4 and 3 cents respectively. Comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin early in the week gave the markets strength only to be taken back later in the week. The funds are estimated to be short 79,425 corn and long 160,019 soybeans.
Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened on Tuesday to sever Ukraine’s access to the sea in response to drone attacks on tankers of Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea. He said Russia would intensify strikes on Ukrainian facilities and vessels and would take measures against tankers of countries that help Ukraine. These comments resulted in a nice bounce for corn and wheat on thoughts that world supplies may be limited. Russia and Ukraine account for 27% of all global wheat exports. Ukraine is the world’s fourth largest corn exporter behind only the United States, Brazil and Argentina.
The USDA will release their Crop Production report on Tuesday December 9th. Traditionally, the December report gives us no update on production and slight adjustments to demand and carryout. I expect the same this year but given the way things played out for the November report due to the government shutdown (lack of data from an October report, limited time to gather the data), we could see some fireworks in this year’s report. Below are the estimates heading into Tuesday.
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA December | Average Trade Est. | USDA November | |
| Corn | 2.124 | 2.154 | |
| Soybeans | .302 | .290 | |
| Wheat | .890 | .901 |
USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA December | Average Trade Est. | USDA November | |
| Corn | 280.71 | 281.34 | |
| Soybeans | 122.41 | 121.99 | |
| Wheat | 272.78 | 271.43 |
Brazilian soybean planting is 92% complete while first crop corn planting is basically complete at 97%. In Argentina soybean planting is 49% complete and corn planting is 57% complete. North and Central Brazil are in good shape with favorable weather while the southern areas are dry.
We have two full weeks of trade left in 2025, and I look for limited volume in much of that timeframe. Unless the WASDE surprises us on Tuesday, we are likely to close out the year trading in the same range we have been for the last couple months.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 12/9/2025 | Crop Production |
| 1/12/2026 | Crop Production |
