Week Ending 2/20/2026

With limited fundamental news to move the markets it was a quiet week of trading until news broke on Friday of the Supreme Court’s ruling on President Trumps tariffs. The May and July contracts ended the week 2 cents lower while the December contract was unchanged. The funds ended the week short 40,313 corn contracts and long 148,981 soybean contracts.

On Friday, The Supreme Court released its ruling on President Trump’s tariff policy. The ruling was against the President in a 6 to 3 vote. The case before the court was over the usage of the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act). The court not only ruled on the IEEPA but also ventured its opinion on tariffs used by any President. Essentially, the case was decided against IEEPA only, but with a modest warning against the President on grabbing powers beyond what was stated as his. The President has several other items at his disposal to levy tariffs on countries to accomplish his goals, but the loss of IEEPA does change his leverage against some key players, such as China. It is estimated that without IEEPA, leverage against China falls by about 2/3.

The President issued a speech following the Courts ruling that he is planning to use the Safeguard tariffs and the Unfair foreign practices tariffs to carry out his goals. Both of these Acts are legitimate and could be implemented immediately if he so chooses.  The markets may see an initial move higher as investors reassess supply chains, pricing structures, and global trade flows with the tariffs lifted, but volatility could remain elevated as the White House evaluates its next steps and potential alternative trade actions.

On Wednesday the World Ag Outlook board released their projections for the 2026 crop. The data they released is mainly used for budgetary projections as most of the numbers are estimates and not tied to surveys and physical data like the USDA uses in their WASDE reports. The board estimated corn planted acreage at 94.0 million which is down from 98.8 million in 2025. Corn yields were estimated at 183.0 bushels per acre, which is down from last year’s 186.5 bushels per acre. Production came in at 15.755 billion bushels and ending stocks at 1.837 billion bushels. Historically the only data from this report that the USDA uses is the yield number as it gives them a starting point for their May WASDE.

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