Week Ending 2/27/2026

The markets finished stronger as we ended the month with March futures entering first notice day. Adding to the late rally on Friday was concern over what was going to happen in Iran. Crude oil was up more than $2.50 amid the rising tensions. This brought buyers to the wheat market that pulled corn higher. May and July futures ended the week 8 cents higher while December closed 4 cents higher. The funds have now exited their short positions in corn and ended the month long 22,766 contracts and long 177,392 soybean contracts.

Reports over the weekend that Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a major attack on Iran launched by Israel and the United States, Israeli officials told The Associated Press on Saturday. With a higher level of political uncertainty there will be questions about the trajectory of Iran’s regional posture in the short term. This heightens the likelihood that elevated risk will persist longer and create uncertainty in several markets, Crude oil being the biggest one.  On the agricultural side I look for many implications of this attack. I look for both corn and soybeans to track higher due to the biofuel connection that corn and soybeans have with crude oil. Corn (ethanol) and soybean oil (biodiesel/renewable diesel) tend to track crude oil in times of conflict. Higher oil prices also increase input costs for producers as higher crude and natural gas lift nitrogen prices.

As we work our way closer to spring, traders will focus on weather and planting progress. The US has seen significant drought this winter. Almost 74% of the US is in some form of drought based on the latest drought monitor readings. The quick fading of La Nina into El Nino is seeing the first shift and that is generally a wetter spring, followed by a dry, but cool summer. Again, that would be the ‘basics’ and that would be fairly crop friendly if it occurred.

I expect higher oil and prices when the markets open Monday. If energy prices hold their gains, corn and especially soybeans will remain firm. If oil fails to hold its strength, grains may give back the initial gains that we saw on Friday. The duration of instability, not just the headline, will determine whether this becomes a sustained repricing across agriculture or simply a short-lived event.

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