Corn found strength early last week, reaching new yearly highs before trading lower at the end of the week on bearish weather and tariff news. March futures failed to reach the $5.00 resistance level again this past week, setting the stage for another run at it this week. March futures ended 6 cents higher while May and July both closed 8 cents higher for the week. The funds are long 334,531 corn contracts and 62,756 soybean contracts.
Reports on Friday that President Trump was planning to pursue reciprocal tariffs on “many countries” this week sent the markets lower. The story was second hand from sources that said the President made the statement in meetings with Republican lawmakers on Thursday. While they are merely rumors for now, traders were hesitant to enter the weekend without taking some profits.
The Argentina Rosario grains exchange reported late last week that it is confident the recent rains will save the crop from the recent heat. Northern and central Argentina will be hot and dry through early this week, increasing crop stress, but the second week of the forecast still looks wet. Brazil saw rains in central crop areas over the weekend and coverage looks strong for the next several days, with the heaviest amounts falling in the north before shifting into southern regions in the 6–10-day time frame.
The USDA will release their February S&D numbers on Tuesday the 11th @ 11:00 AM. Most are looking fora downward revision to 2024-25 U.S. corn stocks while increasing soybeans and leaving wheat unchanged. Argentina corn and soybean production could be revised lower by 2 million tons each.
US Ending Stocks (Million Bushel)
| February 11th | Average Estimate | January 10th | |
| Corn | 1.537 | 1.540 | |
| Soybeans | 382 | 380 | |
| Wheat | 800 | 798 |
Brazil Production (Million Metric Tons)
| February 11th | Average Estimate | January 10th | |
| Corn | 127.0 | 127.0 | |
| Soybeans | 169.9 | 169.0 |
Argentina Production (Million Metric Tons)
| February 11th | Average Estimate | January 10th | |
| Corn | 49.6 | 51.0 | |
| Soybeans | 50.6 | 52.0 |
World Ending Stocks (Million Metric Ton)
| February 11th | Average Estimate | January 10th | |
| Corn | 293.1 | 293.3 | |
| Soybeans | 128.5 | 128.4 | |
| Wheat | 258.7 | 258.8 |
USDA’s February S&D report tends to be a non-event compared to other monthly updates, at least for the U.S. balance sheets, but with maturing crop and harvest underway across South America the USDA may address Brazil and Argentina soybean and corn production. We could see traders focus & pricing moved by the South American numbers on Tuesday unless the USDA increases U.S. corn and soybean exports.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 2/11/2025 | Crop Production |
| 2/17/2025 | NO Markets – Presidents Day |
| 3/11/2025 | Crop Production |
| 3/31/2025 | Grain Stocks/Prospective Plantings |
