New tariffs and counter tariffs put pressure on the markets last week as traders continue to be on edge wondering what’s next. May futures ended the week 11 lower while July and December futures finished 8 and 3 lower respectively. The funds ended the week long 116,412 corn contracts and short 3,922 soybean contracts.
President Trump put a 25% tariff on EU steel and aluminum and the EU came back hours later with their own tariffs. The EU put tariffs on 28 billion dollars’ worth of US goods including soybeans, grain, beef and poultry. The EU believes they can source imported food from other locations. Europe is reliant on imports to boost domestic supplies. It was the second largest export destination for US soybeans in 2024, buying some $2.4 billion worth, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.
Relations between Canada and the US were back and forth last week. The US said it is willing to increase tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% if Canada is going to tax energy into the Northwest US at 25%.
Traders were hoping the March WASDE report was going to be the bullish headline in the markets last week, but the US numbers were largely unchanged. Global ending carryout levels were lowered on corn and beans and raised a decent amount on wheat.
USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA March | Average Estimate | USDA February | |
| Corn | 1.540 | 1.516 | 1.540 |
| Soybeans | .380 | .379 | .380 |
| Wheat | .819 | .797 | .794 |
USDA 2024/25 World Carryout (Million Tons)
| USDA March | Average Estimate | USDA February | |
| Corn | 288.94 | 289.93 | 290.31 |
| Soybeans | 121.41 | 124.56 | 124.34 |
| Wheat | 260.08 | 257.62 | 257.56 |
USDA 2024/25 South American Production (Million Tons)
| USDA March | Average Estimate | USDA February | |
| Argentina Corn | 50.0 | 49.0 | 50.0 |
| Argentina Soybeans | 49.0 | 48.88 | 49.0 |
| Brazil Corn | 126.0 | 126.07 | 126.0 |
| Brazil Soybeans | 169.0 | 169.18 | 169.0 |
South American weather continues to be favorable resulting in improved crop conditions for both corn and soybeans. The USDA left production unchanged in both corn and soybeans this month, but overall production for corn is up 6 million tons for corn and more than 16 million tons for soybeans.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 3/31/2025 | Grain Stocks/Prospective Plantings |
| 4/9/2025 | Crop Production |
