Tariff talk, weather and planting progress were the news this past week within the grain markets. All three of them are pulling the market in different directions at different times. That seems to be the theme lately, especially with Tariffs where it has been day to day on what’s going to come next. May and July corn ended the week 3 and 5 cents lower respectively while December futures closed 10 cents lower. The funds ended the week long 136,414 corn contracts and long 56,245 soybean contracts.
President trump told TIME magazine in an interview that U.S. – China talks were taking place on tariffs and that some progress could be seen very soon. China has apparently exempted some U.S. imports from its 125% tariffs and is asking firms to identify critical goods they need levy-free, according to businesses that have been notified. The U.S. and Japan continue to talk about a trade agreement with Japan, considering increasing its Ag imports from the U.S., but no definitive quantity has been shared.
The U.S. continues to be the worlds largest exporter of grains as prices remain competitive to South America and should remain that way until the Argentina or Brazilian crops start to move to market. By early June I would expect to see a shift in buying move to South American grains, especially if we are still dealing with tariffs or the talk of them.
Last Monday’s crop progress report showed national corn planting progress at 12% complete, up from 4% last week and 2% ahead of the five-year average. Soybean planting rose from 2% to 8% and is ahead of the five-year average of 5%. The consensus is that these numbers were short of the actual percentage planted due to the holiday and not all the data being gathered. I am expecting a significant jump this week with favorable weather across much of the country last week.
The forecast for the FH of May looks pretty good – as such, fears that the crop won’t get in the ground will fade. Every year we go through a checklist: 1. Acres to be planted 2. Planting completion 3. Pollination 4. Maturity 5. Harvest. We are approximately 3-4 weeks away from completing the first 2 items on that checklist, then we will wait about 6-8 weeks before we can mark off pollination.
We continue to see basis strengthening across the U.S. I believe the current strength is a not a result of the grain not being there, but rather the result of a lack of logistics to move it. The farmer is busy in the field and doesn’t have time to move his stored grain and plant this year’s crop regardless of what the market is telling him to do. A stronger basis is getting commercials and some producers to the market to quench the processor needs until planting is complete. I think we will see basis weaken a touch once the planting is complete (early to mid-June)
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 4/21/2025 | Crop Progress |
| 5/12/2025 | Crop Production |
