Week ending 5/2/2025

Favorable planting progress along with fading weather concerns weighed on the markets this past week. July corn futures took the biggest hit closing 16 cents lower, while September and December futures each lost 6 cents this past week. The funds ended the week long 93,129 corn and 72,928 soybean contracts.

Last week brought moisture directly across the heartland of the U.S. with nearly the entire nation seeing wetter conditions than the week prior. In the main row crop producing states, topsoil water surpluses range from 10-30 percent which will be beneficial to getting the crop started.

In Brazil the past two weeks have seen rains stay above average. Two to five inches of rain have fallen in this timeframe. They are 2 weeks from the end of the critical growth period for their Safrinha corn crop. The soil moisture levels are sufficient to carry the crops through harvest. To complement the rainfall, temperatures are expected to be slightly below average.

Last week’s crop progress showed US corn planting doubled from the previous week to 24% complete. This is ahead of the five-year average by 2%. Corn emergence rose from 2% to 5%, which is ahead of the five-year average by 1%. We should see progress climb again in this afternoon’s report as most areas of the US had 3-4 days of decent weather before getting rained out late in the week.

The next three weeks are going to be a lot about planting progress along with short- and long-term weather forecasts. Long term forecasts are calling for a warmer and drought-like pattern to hit the US growing areas in late May to early June. We are not lacking moisture this spring but will have to see what happens in the coming months.

Basis levels continue to strengthen with lower CBOT prices, producers busy in the fields and tighter than anticipated stocks. If exports stay at current levels into the summer months, things could get interesting in August and September. I think we will see basis weaken a touch once the planting is complete (early to mid-June) but do expect it to come roaring back late summer. Ending stocks have dropped in the last 3 USDA reports and I expect the same to happen in the May 12^th report.

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