Technical price action helped the corn market bounce higher last week. July and September closed 16 cents higher while December futures closed 15 cents higher last week. The funds ended the week short 115,483 corn contracts and long 46,330 soybean contracts.
The US Good/Excellent ratings will be released Tuesday afternoon due to the holiday week, and they are expected to be better than average, like the planting pace this year. Though initial Good/Excellent ratings have zero correlation to final yields, a good rating only has to be maintained instead of rescued by rains. The USDA’s old yield models place considerable weight on timely planting, which the US has exceeded this year. The next hurdle will be rain in June, followed by July temperatures and moisture.
The weather forecast has heavy rains for the South that extends out in the models for the next 14 days. The Midwest appears to warm up a bit with more chances for rain in the 7–10-day timeframe. While this forecast is on the bearish side but could quickly become an issue if it stays wet.
Last week’s planting progress made another push towards completion with 78% of the crop reported in the ground as of 5/18/25. This is ahead of last year by 11% and the 5-year average by 5%. The Eastern corn belt remains behind average but should have made up some ground last week and early this week.
Coming off a holiday weekend and on the brink of a new month we could see some price action to the higher side this week. Historically June is a bullish month for the grain markets. In the last 20 years, December corn futures have posted their yearly highs in the month of June. The previous contract high for December futures (CZ25) was in February when we reached $4.7975. Once we hit July, there is a 75% chance that December futures will make new contract lows before expiration. Will history repeat itself and give the producer one last chance to market corn at profitable levels or will this year’s large acreage keep history from repeating itself is TBD.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 5/27/2025 | Crop Progress |
| 6/12/2025 | Crop Production |
| 6/30/2025 | Acreage/Quarterly Stocks |
