Week ending 5/30/2025

Favorable US weather, weaker exports and month end weighed on the markets last week. A wet forecast led the way pulling the markets lower all week as the funds added to their short positions. July corn lost 15 cents last week and 31 cents during the month. September corn lost 15 cents last week but only ended 14 cents lower for the month. December futures were the winner, only losing 13 cents last week and 7 for the month. The funds end the month short 120,149 corn contracts and long 46,919 soybean contracts.

A US appeals court temporarily reinstated the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs Thursday while it reviews a lower court ruling blocking the new import levies. The latest action came a day after the US Court of International Trade ordered the administration to stop most of its new levies, including a 10% baseline import tariff, on nearly all US trading partners within 10 days. The ruling argued President Trump exceeded his authority by using a 1977 emergency powers law to impose tariffs. Trump has used the tariffs to lure manufacturing back to the US, potentially reduce federal deficits, and gain leverage to negotiate more favorable trade deals. The federal court decision is now stayed through June 9, when the appeals court will hear arguments in the case.

Weekly exports were on the lower end of estimates at 36.1 million bushels. This is well below the 10-week average of 50.2 million bushels. We are 153 million bushels (6%) ahead of the pace needed to hit the USDA’s estimates for the year. I look for exports to begin to tail off over the next few weeks as the South American crop comes to market. Brazil corn is currently $.10/bushel cheaper than US corn for July forward.

The first quarter of the year all we were hearing from weather forecasters was “drought”! We are a long way from being able to say it won’t happen, but the recent weather we are experiencing is far from drought. I would expect to see a slight increase in crop ratings for corn and soybeans tomorrow. In my opinion crop ratings this time of the year are useless as it’s too early to meaningfully rate the crop. As one farmer told me, this time of year it’s either dead or alive!

Last week’s planting progress showed 87% of the country complete compared to 85% on average. Ohio remains the biggest concern at only 54% complete. Given the geographic location of the acres that are not planted, I look for producers in OH to plant well past their insurance deadline of June 5^th if necessary.

Historically June is a bullish month for the grain markets. In the last 20 years, December corn futures have posted their yearly highs in the month of June. The previous contract high for December futures (CZ25) was in February when we reached $4.7975. Since 1973 December futures have always returned to their February price average. This year’s CZ average in February was $4.70. History also tells us that once we hit July, there is a 75% chance that December futures will make new contract lows before expiration.

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