The corn markets continued their selloff this past week with lower energy markets and favorable weather. New lows were established in the July, September and December contract months this past week before bouncing and closing slightly above them. July corn ended the week 5 cents lower while September and December corn ended 6 cents lower. The funds are now short corn for the first time since February ending the week short 15,306 corn and long 102,859 soybean contracts.
The June Crop Production report was released and as expected was a snoozer. The only noteworthy news was in the South American production numbers where corn production in both Argentina and Brazil was increased.
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA June 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA May 2026 | |
| Corn | 2.145 | 2.138 | 2.142 |
| Soybeans | .340 | .338 | .340 |
| Wheat | .935 | .942 | .935 |
USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA June 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA May 2026 | |
| Corn | 1.960 | 1.947 | 1.957 |
| Soybeans | .310 | .312 | .310 |
| Wheat | .744 | .765 | .762 |
USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA June 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA May 2026 | |
| Corn | 281.22 | 278.51 | 277.54 |
| Soybeans | 124.88 | 125.28 | 124.78 |
| Wheat | 275.42 | 274.66 | 275.04 |
USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)
| USDA June 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA May 2026 | |
| Argentina Corn | 61.00 | 61.11 | 59.00 |
| Argentina Soybeans | 50.00 | 48.62 | 48.00 |
| Brazil Corn | 138.00 | 135.70 | 135.00 |
| Brazil Soybeans | 180.00 | 180.34 | 180.00 |
Last Monday’s crop progress report was unchanged from the previous week with 67% of the crop in the Good/Excellent category. This is slightly below the five-year average of 69%.
Demand for US corn has been very good this year due to a big crop and low prices. Exports have been strong; ethanol grind has been strong and feed numbers at least on paper have been strong. (I feel they are over stated) This increase in demand has given the markets some support that has been desperately needed by the producer. There doesn’t appear to be many opportunities for an increase in old crop demand moving forward with one exception, China! Will China step up to buy US corn? I expect China to buy US corn but feel like it will be the 2026 crop and not 2025’s. I also don’t expect them to come to the table until August or September when values are historically at their lowest.
While I don’t expect any short-term demand spikes, I feel like we have put a floor in these markets and they are due for correction. I still think we have a chance to take July futures back to $4.40 and December futures back to the $4.70 level. It could be weather, surprise demand, speculative buying by the funds or an acreage adjustment in one of the coming USDA reports.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 6/15/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 6/19/2026 | Juneteenth – NO Markets |
| 6/30/2026 | Quarterly Stocks/Acreage revisions |
| 7/10/2026 | Crop Production |
