For the second week in a row, new contract lows were established in the July, September and December contract months last Monday before the market bounced to work higher. July corn ended the week 5 cents higher while September and December corn ended 4 cents higher. The funds short position was short lived as they are now long 24,194 corn and long 143,359 soybean contracts.
US and Iranian officials have started direct talks in Switzerland after signing an initial agreement to end the war last week. The deal includes a commitment to reach a final agreement within 60 days, as well as an end to fighting on “all fronts” – including in Lebanon – and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But more clashes between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon prompted Iran to announce it had shut the shipping route on Saturday – though tracking data shows vessels have continued to pass through it.
The funds appear to be coming back to the corn market as active buyers. Technically the market’s recent selloff has stalled and is giving us a breather to analyze where things may go heading forward. Statistically the corn market is trading in the lower 10% of the five-year average. This means that over the last five years, the market has only traded lower than current levels 10% of the time.
Weather forecasts continue to offer a positive outlook in the 15–30-day timeframe with moderate temperatures and normal rainfall thru mid-July. Concern over a drought this summer is all but eliminated and switched to excessive moisture in some areas of the country.
Last Monday’s crop progress report improved 1% in the Good/Excellent category. This is 4% behind last year but 1% ahead of the five-year average. With plentiful rainfall and favorable weather across the mid-west this past week I would expect this afternoon’s conditions to remain unchanged to slightly improved.
The acreage report isn’t until the end of the month so there is still an opportunity for the Stocks and Acreage to become a bullish story. Early estimates that I have seen indicate that some traders looking for planted acres to drop 1-3 million in this report.
While I don’t expect any short-term demand spikes, I feel like we have put a floor in these markets and they are due for correction. I still think we have a chance to take July futures back to $4.40 and December futures back to the $4.70 level. It could be weather, surprise demand, speculative buying by the funds or an acreage adjustment in one of the coming USDA reports.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 6/22/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 6/30/2026 | Quarterly Stocks/Acreage revisions |
| 7/10/2026 | Crop Production |
