Recent rainfall and favorable weather forecasts were the fuse that lit the fire as traders exited their longs in dramatic fashion last week. The lack of Chinese trade news, additional war news and a favorable crop conditions report sent the funds to the door. July futures ended the week 30 lower while September and December corn both closed 29 cents lower. After a week of selling the funds are now only long 12,136 corn contracts and long 94,780 soybean contracts.
The Midwest saw decent rains last week, and the 15-day forecast continues to look better as rains have shifted into the southeastern US, central corn belt, and eastern corn belt. Recent drought monitor maps show that the rains that have arrived have already improved some of the Western Corn Belt and the forecasted rains could improve conditions even more.
The June Crop Production report will be out on Thursday. I don’t expect this report to be a market mover. Estimates are listed below.
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA June 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA May 2026 | |
| Corn | 2.138 | 2.142 | |
| Soybeans | .338 | .340 | |
| Wheat | .942 | .935 |
USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA June 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA May 2026 | |
| Corn | 1.947 | 1.957 | |
| Soybeans | .312 | .310 | |
| Wheat | .765 | .762 |
USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA June 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA May 2026 | |
| Corn | 278.51 | 277.54 | |
| Soybeans | 125.28 | 124.78 | |
| Wheat | 274.66 | 275.04 |
USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)
| USDA June 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA May 2026 | |
| Argentina Corn | 61.11 | 59.00 | |
| Argentina Soybeans | 48.62 | 48.00 | |
| Brazil Corn | 135.70 | 135.00 | |
| Brazil Soybeans | 180.34 | 180.00 |
The first crop progress report of the year showed 67% of the corn crop in the Good/Excellent range. This is slightly behind the five-year average and last year’s report for the same date. Favorable weather last week should result in a stable to slightly improved report this afternoon.
The market appears to have removed all the weather premiums that we built in April and early May. It’s only June 8th and there is plenty of summer left to build another weather rally, so the game is not over yet. It’s my belief that the market rallied too fast at the beginning of March when the conflict started and that it recently sold off too fast based on early June weather. I expect the markets to stabilize as we move thru the balance of June and potentially take July futures back to the $4.40 level and December futures back to the $4.70 level by the end of June if we see weather issues arise, China show up to buy new crop corn or significant escalation in the Iranian conflict.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 6/8/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 6/11/2026 | Crop Production |
| 6/30/2026 | Quarterly Stocks/Acreage revisions |
