Week Ending 6/6/2025

The markets are were mixed this past week as spreads and demand for corn in the east worked on the worked new crop higher while weather remained friendly for those in the west. July futures ended the week a penny lower while September and December futures both closed 10 cents higher. The funds ended the week short 117,979 corn contracts and long 49,604 soybean contracts.

It appears as though the grain markets have found support in the low $4.30 range (CN25) and are content with this as a low for now. We tested this level three times last week before closing about 10 cents off that price. Until we see or know more about weather over the next 30 days and if the rains will continue, this support may hold. The Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows perfect weather for crop development with normal temps and plenty of rain.  Other forecasts show a pattern change starting around June 11th to warmer and drier.  It also looks like we’ll see some extreme weather when the heat starts to come in that could create pop up storms that bring rain.  I think we will need to see a dome form in these weather models before the markets can move higher.

Planting progress came in at 93% complete this past week, which was a small climb from the previous week’s 87% and right in line with the five-year average. The biggest delays are still in the east. With the crop insurance deadline past and coverage dropping daily, some are questioning if the final acres will get planted or go to prevent plant. I won’t bore you with the calculations on what revenue may be and what the insurance coverage levels may be in any given area, but based on my calculations, producers are most likely going to try to plant at least for another week or so. It is currently estimated that 1.9 million acres of corn are unplanted across the US and may end up as prevent plant. This is below last year’s 2.7 million acres and the 15-year average of 2.5 million acres.

Weekly crop conditions showed 69% of the corn crop in the Good/Excellent category which is 3% below the five-year average and 6% behind last year. On Thursday the USDA will give us their June production numbers which will be an update on demand and ending stocks at the end of May. I would not be surprised to see exports and ethanol demand increase and feed demand decrease in this report.

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