The corn market found support in the weather forecasts and stronger wheat markets to close higher last week. September futures ended the week 5 higher while December and March closed 7 cents higher. The funds ended the week long 16,361 corn contracts and long 85,191 soybean contracts.
The Russia-Ukraine war became very active last week resulting in traders adding premium to the wheat complex to mitigate any risk of an escalation and world wheat exports being impacted. Russia and Ukraine account for approximately 30% of the world’s wheat exports. Corn followed wheat higher because they are substitutes for each other in the feed markets. In addition to feed replacements, Ukraine is a top 5 exporter of corn for the world.
Russia said they are preparing to reroute grain exports from Sea of Azov port locations to deep sea ports in the Black Sea or through Baltic Sea ports following the recent attacks from Ukraine and that they do not expect any overall impact on Russia’s annual grain exports. This should keep values in check long term, but the short-term delay in shipments has and will most likely continue to support the markets. Rerouting through other ports could delay shipments by 30-90 days.
US heat started slipping back into the extended weather models but to a lesser degree. The National Weather Service released its 30-day outlook, which showed the Midwest under a normal to above-normal rain for August. The temperature outlook continues to moderate in the 14-day forecast, with elevated temperatures in the southern and eastern corn belt in the 30-day range.
Last week’s crop progress report was up 1% with 68% of the crop reported in the Good/Excellent category. This is above the five-year average by 2% but slightly behind last year’s 74%.
Last week’s run up in the markets took the September (CU6) contract above my target of $4.50, but it failed to close above that level. December (CZ6) and March (CH7) contracts fell just short of my targets of $4.75 and $4.90 respectively. If the extended weather forecasts hold true or if the wheat market continues its run, we should hit these levels this week. Keep an eye on weather forecast as they change frequently this time of year and can have dramatic impacts on the markets as traders move positions.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 7/20/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 8/12/2026 | Crop Production |
| 9/7/2026 | No Markets |
| 9/11/2026 | Crop Production |
| 9/30/2026 | Quarterly Stocks |
